Backroom Briefing: Political paths still open for incumbent senators

By BRANDON LARRABEE AND JIM TURNER
THE NEWS SERVICE OF FLORIDA

THE CAPITAL, TALLAHASSEE, December 31, 2015......... Aside from chatter about the partisan skew of a Senate redistricting plan selected Wednesday by Leon County Circuit Judge George Reynolds, the biggest question about the new lines is how they might alter the future of incumbent senators who hope to run again in 2016.

Reynolds chose a map, proposed by voting-rights groups, that would lead to a roughly even split in the 40-seat chamber between districts that favor Democrats and those that favor Republicans.
 
It's also a map that is worse for incumbents than redistricting plans proposed by the Senate and existing district lines, which were set aside in a legal settlement. But perhaps not all that bad. Some sitting senators might have to move to avoid running against colleagues, and a few could find things slightly more competitive in their new districts, but most of them came out OK.

For one thing, being paired with another incumbent in a district isn't necessarily a death knell. While testifying before Reynolds during a trial in mid-December, Senate Reapportionment Chairman Bill Galvano, R-Bradenton, pointed out that officeholders can move if necessary.

"That happens more frequently than you would imagine in the legislative process," Galvano said "People will make those calculated decisions."
 
Take Senate District 27 in South Florida as an example. Under the map Reynolds selected, it would be a three-incumbent pile-up between Democratic Sens. Joe Abruzzo, Jeff Clemens and Maria Sachs.

But the district is next door to two Democratic-leaning districts that would be unoccupied by incumbents, meaning a short move by two of the sitting senators could avoid the conflict. It might not go over well with candidates who were plotting runs in those areas, but it would still keep the three incumbents from clashing head-on.
 
In the Panhandle, Sen. Greg Evers, R-Baker, could find himself in a clash with Rep. Matt Gaetz, a Fort Walton Beach Republican who hopes to follow his term-limited father, Niceville Republican Don Gaetz, in the Senate. But on a state financial disclosure form, Evers said he owns two residences, one of which would avoid a conflict.
 
Sens. Miguel Diaz de la Portilla, R-Coral Gables, and Gwen Margolis, D-Miami, could run against each other in Senate District 35, a swing seat. Or Margolis could jump a few miles to the north and run in a district that President Barack Obama carried by more than 52 points in 2012.
 
If Sen. Anitere Flores, R-Miami, wanted to avoid an uphill climb against Sen. Dwight Bullard, D-Miami, in the blue District 35, she could move to a swing seat next door.
 
Even districts that seem to lean against incumbents might not be all that bad. Under the new map, Sen. Jeff Brandes, R-St. Petersburg, would live in a seat that was carried by Obama in 2012 and by Democratic gubernatorial candidate Alex Sink in 2010 --- but barely both times. Obama carried it by 0.7 percentage points, and Sink won by 1.2 points. And Brandes had to run in a swingy seat even under the current map.

One place where things could get tricky is in the larger Tampa Bay region. Republican Sens. John Legg of Trinity and Wilton Simpson of Dade City are both in what would be District 11. One potential landing place, in Senate District 18, could be needed to avoid a clash between Galvano and Sen. Tom Lee, R-Brandon.
 
It's not entirely clear from public records where Lee lives because his address is exempt from disclosure under the state's open-records laws; his wife is a judge. But the city of Brandon sits near the intersection of three seats --- District 18, heavily Democratic District 19, and District 24, where Galvano lives.

Some Republican is likely going to be forced to take a shot in Hillsborough County's District 17, which Sink carried by 1.8 points and Obama won by 1.2 points. Not too difficult, but not precisely easy, either.

All of that could be wiped out if Senate Republicans appeal Reynolds' decision, but the Florida Supreme Court has not been a friendly place for the GOP on redistricting matters. And Sen. Joe Negron, the Stuart Republican who will take over as president of the chamber in November 2016, sounded like he was ready to move on Wednesday.
 
"With today's decision, the maps are set and Senate Victory is ready to focus on November 2016," Negron said, referring to the GOP campaign organization that he controls.
 
But in a handful of districts, that focus might still be a bit fuzzy as candidates try to figure out who fits where.

CAMPAIGNING? BASEBALL? MAYBE FAMILY TIME

An earlier-than-normal legislative session will allow lawmakers to shift into re-election mode --- barring another year of multiple special sessions --- in March rather than May, when the annual 60-day session typically ends.

Some have speculated that the decision to move up the start of the 2016 session to Jan. 12 was also made so legislators and other Capitol denizens could actually get in some Major League Baseball Grapefruit League spring training games.

But Senate President Andy Gardiner, R-Orlando, said the change for him is about family.

"There will be a lot of talk and speculation about why we came in early," Gardiner told reporters this month. "I can tell you that there was no conspiracy other than the speaker and I have young children, and we think we can get our job done early and be home for spring with our families. And that is what we intend to do."

Gardiner and House Speaker Steve Crisafulli, R-Merritt Island, can't run again for their current seats in 2016 because of term limits. Neither has announced political plans beyond the 2016 session.

TWEET OF THE WEEK: "Too bad AG Schuette is going to miss out on Fresh From Florida oranges.@AGPamBondi here's a recipe for apple cider bit.ly/1mO1LA7" --- Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam (@adamputnam), referring to a friendly wager between Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi and Michigan Attorney General Bill Schuette over the football bowl game between the University of Florida and the University of Michigan. Bondi wagered Florida oranges, while Schuette put up Michigan apples. Putnam, like Bondi, is a Gator alum.