By Dr. Susan A. MacManus

With the assistance of

Mary L. Moss, Undergraduate Researcher, U.S.F. Honors College

David J. Bonanza, Research Assistant, U.S.F. Graduate

            In the year leading up to the 2010 election, politics in Florida took a record number of unexpected twists and turns. The excitement generated by the volatility and unpredictability of the election cycle led the website politico.com to place Florida’s U.S. Senate and gubernatorial elections on its national “top 10 campaigns of 2010” list. (Rubio’s campaign ranked first; Scott’s fifth).[1]

Far more predictable (or at least understandable) were the Election Day outcomes and the reasons for them. Democrats came up empty-handed, unable to distance themselves from a worsening economy, an increasingly unpopular president, and a Democratically-controlled Congress perceived as unable and/or unwilling to reverse the economic downturn. Floridians’ voting patterns in the U.S. Senate and gubernatorial races were nearly identical based on a comparison of the exit poll results.   

            As the books on Election 2010 close, we take one more look back at the “unpredictables” and the “predictables.”  Then it is onward to 2012.

The Most Memorable “Unpredictables”

On January 1, 2010 virtually no one would have predicted the many headline-grabbing candidacies (some with less-than-stellar backgrounds; others with the potential to be trailblazers for their race or gender). Nor would we have expected the record-breaking, multi-million dollar television advertising campaigns in the middle of a recession. With the entry of wealthy candidates, the ad campaigns began earlier than usual, lasted longer, turned more negative, and failed more “truth tests.”

Floridians got a first-hand look at the difficulties wealthy first time candidates from the private sector encounter when they seek top-level offices against establishment-preferred opponents. Few realized just how much CEOs/former CEOs would be open game for any and all corporate-related actions that occurred under their watch, no matter how “indirect” their involvement might have been.  Nowhere was this more evident than in the fierce gubernatorial contest between Republican Rick Scott and Democrat Alex Sink.

Finally, with Floridians having 50-yard-line seats to two of the most exciting races in the nation, few would have predicted the relatively low turnout rates of Floridians in both the primary (22%) and general elections (48.6%).[2]  Nor would the low turnout of Democrats in South Florida have been expected.

            Putting together a list of the “most memorable” unpredictables was not easy with so many to choose from, but here are our choices:

Unpredictable Economy, Candidacies & Primary Victors

·        Florida’s economic recovery never got on track in 2010; by Election Day, the Sunshine State’s unemployment rate had risen to the fourth highest (11.9 percent) among the states; its home foreclosure rate ranked second in the nation.

·        Two extremely rich unknowns (Democrat Jeff Greene & Republican Rick Scott) jumped into the U.S. Senate and gubernatorial primary races respectively. Each of them ultimately found it necessary to run expensive TV ads in which their mothers told Floridians what “good boys” they were! Both entered the race with questions about the ethics of their business practices, specifically the manner in which they acquired their wealth.

·        Florida’s popular governor Charlie Crist chose not to run for reelection but rather to make a run for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by Sen. Mel Martinez. Crist then decided to run as an independent after being chased out of the Republican primary by long-shot (now U.S. Senator-elect) Marco Rubio.

·        Rick Scott defeated Attorney General Bill McCollum, the GOP establishment’s favorite, for the GOP nomination for governor, early proof of the power of massive TV advertising and a catchy job-related message (“Let’s get to work.”)

·        A young Republican female county prosecutor who had never run for public office (Pam Bondi) upset a sitting Lt. Governor (Jeff Kottkamp) and a former state House member who had also served as secretary of both the Department of Business and Professional Regulation and the Agency for Health Care Administration (Holly Benson) for the GOP Attorney General nomination. Bondi then went on to defeat a well-known state senator (Dan Gelber) from South Florida to become the state’s first female AG.

·        Congressman Kendrick Meek, trailing in the polls, needed last minute help from former President Bill Clinton and President Barack Obama to catch up to controversial newcomer Jeff Greene to win the Democratic nomination for the U.S. Senate seat.

·        An African-American female Republican legislator from Jacksonville (Jennifer Carroll) was tapped to become the Lt. Governor running mate of a conservative gubernatorial candidate from Naples (Rick Scott). Both “outsiders” ultimately won election to the state’s highest executive offices.

·        A three-person U.S. Senate race captured national and international attention, in part because of the racial/ethnic diversity of the candidates running to represent the nation’s fourth largest state in Washington.  Cuban American Marco Rubio, African American Kendrick Meek, and the grandson of a Greek immigrant, Charlie Crist, reflected the state’s diversity.

Other Unpredictables

·        The emergence and growing strength of the Tea Party and 9/12 activist groups shocked national media pundits who mistakenly cast these groups as “right-wing nuts” with little clout.

·        Former Republican vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin endorsed candidates for statewide and congressional offices in Florida in a midterm election no less. She actively appeared at various Tea Party gatherings and turned out to be a highly successful rainmaker for GOP candidates she supported. Palin was the headliner at the campaign-ending GOP Victory Rally in Orlando.

·        Over $100 million was spent on TV ads just through the primary, mostly by millionaire candidates Greene and Scott. They proved how quickly a massive infusion of advertising dollars could bolster their name recognition and make them competitive, but ultimately would have little impact on significantly boosting voter turnout rates over those in 2006.

·        A record number six televised U.S. Senate debates, including one on Spanish language cable network Univision, highlighted the unique dynamics of a three-person race featuring experienced candidates. The debates, several of which were moderated by national press figures (George Stephenapolous, anchor of ABC’s Good Morning America, and David Gregory, host of NBC’s Meet the Press) demonstrated the difficulties of an NPA (independent) candidate being able to “rise above party” at a time when voters seemed to want certainty on economic issue positions rather than mere promises of “working together.”

·        Three televised gubernatorial debates, also including one on Univision, were judged by many to have been much more negative than the senatorial debates, leading some to say the result was fewer people voting in the Governor’s race. The debates produced some very embarrassing moments for both CEOs. The final debate made national news when neither millionaire (Sink nor Scott) knew Florida’s current minimum wage and one (Sink) would be caught looking at a cell phone message in violation of debate rules.

·        A hefty portion of Florida Democrats abandoned the Party’s first African-American nominee for the U.S. Senate to support a former conservative Republican governor they had found repulsive just four years prior. Endorsements of Crist by Democrat elected officials, contributions to him by big Democratic donors, and President Clinton talking to Meek about dropping out of the race made big headlines and further angered Meek supporters and Democratic Party loyalists.  The intraparty spats undoubtedly tamped down critical Democratic turnout in South Florida.

·        Young voters remained relatively disinterested in the midterm election in spite of two path-breaking Democrats running statewide. (Sink would have been Florida’s first female governor, Meek, the state’s first African-American U.S. Senator.) Some even speculated that young voters’ disillusionment with Obama weakened the normal pull of trailblazer-type candidates among that age cohort.

·        The Florida Supreme Court removed three proposed constitutional amendments (all put there by the Florida Legislature) from the ballot prompting an organized effort by a conservative coalition calling for voters to vote against the retention of two Supreme Court justices (Jorge Labarga and James Perry). These justices, appointed to the bench by Governor Charlie Crist, had voted to remove an amendment from the ballot that would have exempted Florida from participating in the newly-reformed national health care system (ObamaCare). An anti-retention movement had not occurred in the state in years.

·        The defeat of four Democratic incumbent Congress members (Boyd, Klein, Grayson, and Kosmas) was unexpected. Nowhere was the anti-Washington vote pattern more evident than in these four races. A surprise victor in one race (District 22—Klein’s district) was retired Army Lt. Col. Allen West, the state’s first black Republican Congressman since Reconstruction. West was supported by Tea Party activists and endorsed by Sarah Palin.

·        Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee became a permanent resident of Florida, making his new home in the Panhandle near Ft. Walton Beach.  (Is anyone else thinking 2012?)

The Predictables:

Voting Patterns Nearly Identical For Rubio & Scott For Same Reasons

The sagging economy, TARP (Troubled Asset Relief Program), the economic stimulus package, bailouts, the exploding national debt, and ObamaCare made Democrats easy targets in a state experiencing unusually high levels of economic stress.

As the 2010 election year unfolded, Florida’s unemployment and foreclosure rates continued to creep up. So did animosity toward the majority party in D.C. The voting enthusiasm gap between Republicans and Democrats widened as tea party activists and sympathizers gained momentum and independents increasingly leaned toward “the party out of power in Washington” and sought new faces in high places. It was a highly nationalized mid-term election at every level—from the top to the bottom of the ticket.  The vote patterns for Rubio and Scott were similar for the same reasons. 

Economic Concerns 

According to the national exit polls, the majority of Floridians whose family situation had worsened, were worried about foreclosures and economic conditions in general, saw the economy as the most important issue in 2010, viewed the U.S. economy as in a long-term decline, and believe cutting taxes or reducing the federal budget deficit should be the highest priority for the new Congress voted for both Marco Rubio and Rick Scott. (See Table 1.) 

Table 1

Candidate Preferences by Voter Economic Concerns

Economic Concern                                    (% of All Voters)		U.S. Senate				Governor
		Meek (D)	Rubio (R)	Crist (NPA)	Other/ No Answer	Sink (D)	Scott (R)	Other/No Answer
		%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Family Financial Situation	Better (11%)	39	24	35	2	70	27	3
	Worse (44%)	15	61	23	1	35	63	2
	Same (44%)	21	45	32	2	53	45	2
Worried About Foreclosure for You or Relative	Yes (45%)	21	55	20	4	41	55	4
	No (54%)	20	43	35	2	55	42	3
Worried About Economic Conditions	Yes (86%)	17	53	29	1	42	55	3
	No (13%)	47	15	38	N/A	83	14	3
Economy as Most Important Issue	Yes (69%)	20	50	29	1	47	51	2
	No (29%)	22	46	31	1	49	46	5
U.S. Economy Is In…	Normal Downturn (23%)	34	25	39	2	73	23	4
	Long-Term Decline (73%)	16	58	24	2	39	58 « Back to Dr. Susan MacManus Columns     © 2024 Sayfie Media LLC. All rights reserved. Privacy Statement