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Dr. Susan MacManus

Dr. Matthew Corrigan

Dr. Aubrey Jewett

Dr. Kathryn DePalo-Gould

Sayfie Review Featured Column

Tracking Florida’s 2014 Governor’s Race: Big Questions Still Loom

by Dr. Susan MacManus
June 13, 2013

Susan A. MacManus, Distinguished University Professor
University of South Florida
and
Sandra L. Waldron, Research Associate

Florida’s 2014 governor’s race has already been labeled one of the nation’s premier contests by many national political pundits. Even though uncertainties about the contest abound, most analysts are predicting a very tight contest. That’s just Florida.

The Sunshine State is still the nation’s most competitive. For three successive election cycles, the top executive races on the Florida ballot have been nail-biters to the end. The 2008 presidential race in Florida was the fifth closest vote in the nation (Democrat Barack Obama defeated Republican John McCain by just 2.8% of the vote). The 2010 governor’s race was the closest ever for that position (Scott—48.9% v. Sink—47.7%, a 1.2% difference) and the 2012 presidential contest was closer in Florida than in any other state (Obama—50.0% v. Romney—49.1%, a 0.9% difference).

Midterm, or nonpresidential, election years, are always challenging and difficult to predict. In Florida, as elsewhere, turnout rates (total actual voters as a percent of registered voters) dip considerably in nonpresidential election years: 47% in 2006 and 49% in 2010 compared to 75% in 2008 and 72% in 2012. (Trend-line graphs comparing registration, turnout, voter demographic makeup, and partisan voting patterns across these four years are reported at the end of the column.)

Get-Out-The-Vote (GOTV) efforts in mid-term elections require highly sophisticated micro-targeting of key constituencies whose interest levels and issue concerns can change over the course of a long campaign. While it may be too soon to “put the heat” on voters to get engaged in next year’s governor’s race, it is not premature for party activists, political consultants, and candidates to begin gearing up for the premier race.

An Unsettled Contest: Big Unanswered Questions

At this point, the 2014 governor’s race is still largely stuck in the “guessing game” stage, primarily because there are some rather big questions that are still unanswered:

1. To what degree will the 2014 election be nationalized—intertwined with Washington politics? Polls are showing a huge disconnect between voters and Washington. High levels of distrust of American institutions are alarming proponents of democracy and tamping down turnout as evidenced in state and local elections held across the U.S. and in Florida thus far in 2013.

2. Will either party have a truly competitive gubernatorial primary? Right now, it looks like Democrats may have one, but not the Republicans. However, some analysts doubt whether either party will have one. Some Democratic and Republican party activists who would prefer candidates other than Charlie Crist or Rick Scott predict that big money behind the two governors will ultimately chase away primary challengers who, ironically, might be stronger candidates for their respective parties in the general election. Other party activists are just as happy not to have a competitive primary election because such a race gives the opposition much of the ammunition needed to win in the fall and greatly increases fund-raising demands, particularly if only one party has a competitive primary. (Republicans suffered from the one-sided presidential primary in 2012.)

3. If the nominees are Crist and Scott, to what degree will political ad-makers take their records and paint them as “flip-floppers” and will such an approach from both sides of the aisle depress turnout among their respective bases and among the critical independent voters? Supporters of Alex Sink, Nan Rich, Bill Nelson, and Adam Putnam worry that re-nominating governors, each of whom has dramatically changed his positions on key issues, might dampen enthusiasm for voting among certain components of their party’s base and among independents as well. Crist and Scott supporters counter that voters will care less about changes in issue positions than about the governors’ current stances on how to resolve some of the state’s pressing problems—they see voters as more focused on a candidate’s vision for the future (prospective voting) than on the shortcomings of past performances (retrospective voting).

4. How much will Florida’s new campaign contribution laws change the role of money in the governor’s race? Besides chasing some potential candidates out of the race before they even enter it, the question is whether the higher contribution limits will lead major donors to contribute a larger share of their money directly to their preferred candidate or to a SuperPAC (as was the pattern in 2012). Certainly, most candidates would prefer that donors increase their contributions to their campaign rather than to a SuperPAC. Candidate-controlled contributions enable more control over their message. What campaign finance reformers fear is that deep-pocketed donors will simply give more—both to the candidate and to SuperPACS, thereby significantly raising the cost of the 2014 election.

5. Which party will be plagued with the most internal conflicts? For Democrats, the question is whether past tussles between south and central Florida party activists and contributors for party control will resurface in the event of a hotly contested primary featuring gubernatorial candidates from the two regions. For Republicans, conflicts over immigration and moral issues (abortion and reproductive rights) might well divide the party. The potential for intra-party conflicts is worrisome to both parties because each recognizes such squabbles can depress turnout in the general election.

6. What will be the role of third parties, especially the Libertarians? Will they pull conservative Republicans away from voting for the GOP candidate, young independent voters away from the Democratic candidate, or both? Recent polls have shown that concerns about government invasion of individual privacy, particularly of emails, Facebook, and other social media are greatest among younger voters. Thus, the privacy invasion issues dominating Washington, DC at the moment may pull younger voters in a more independent direction, thereby draining them away from the two major parties.

7. How soon is too soon to (a) file for office and (b) start running campaign ads? Voter fatigue has become a big reality in American politics and was certainly a factor in Florida in 2012 when turnout dropped. (After all, the presidential contest in Florida had begun in 2011 with nationally-televised debates featuring potential Republican candidates.) Looking at the governor’s race, it is easy to see the reticence of potential candidates with high name recognition to jump into the race right now. But for lesser-known candidates, like Democrat Nan Rich, filing early is imperative both to raise money and to raise name recognition. As to when to begin running campaign ads, there is certainly a difference between running campaign ads on TV (very expensive) and posting ads on a wide variety of social media. The latter is more affordable and, at this stage of the campaign, more effective with potential volunteers and contributors than with the average Floridian who tends to tune out politics in the summer.

8. How negative should the ad campaign be? According to analyses by The Wesleyan Project, the 2012 presidential election was the most negative in U.S. history; 85% of Pres. Obama’s ads were negative as were 79% of those run by Gov. Romney. Florida saw the most money being spent on television ads of any state in the nation, yet turnout declined. Turnout was lower in the media markets where the most ads were run—mostly back-to-back ads contradicting each other, leaving working class suburban voters believing neither candidate had any answers to their economic concerns. Turnout is always a challenge in midterm elections; a prolonged and heavily saturated TV ad campaign in 2014 could potentially make it a bigger problem than usual. Finding the right balance between spending for TV ads and voter mobilization (Get-Out-The-Vote efforts) will likely be the subject of heated debates within campaigns, depending on how close polling shows the race to be. Post-2012 election analyses left Republicans in Florida (and nationally) asking whether the Romney campaign spent too much on TV ads and too little on extensive data bases that enabled better micro-targeting and last minute GOTV efforts.

9. Which groups will pose the biggest threat to party turnout in the general election? For Republicans, it could well be suburban middle-class white voters, especially women if health care or reproductive rights issues dominate. Some suburban women who had initially expressed support for Gov. Romney ended up voting for Pres. Obama in 2012 over these issues. For Democrats, the challenge is to replicate turnout patterns typical in a presidential election year, which means turning out younger and minority voters. Depending on the Party’s nominee in 2014, Democratic women voters might also be less enthusiastic about turning out in 2014. In 2010, Alex Sink drew a lot of support from women voters and women voters make up a higher percentage of Democratic Party registrants than of Republican Party registrants. And female Democratic activists are currently watching how party leaders treat Nan Rich’s candidacy.

10. Will each party have either racial/ethnic or gender diversity on their governor/lt. governor ticket? Each party must worry about alienating the much needed female vote in 2014. And each party must be mindful of the role path-breaking candidates can play in mobilizing turnout, particularly among younger and minority voters, especially Florida’s growing Hispanic electorate.

11. Will President Obama or the First Lady campaign for the Democratic nominee? And will we see Hillary and/or Bill Clinton returning to Florida (a state that has been kind to both over the years) to campaign for the Democratic nominee? Another question is whether one presidential team would be more helpful to the party’s nominee than the other. Regardless, the 2016 presidential race will never be far from the minds of either Florida Democrats or Republicans.

12. To what degree will the state’s election laws, particularly those regarding felon voting rights and early voting hours (the lack of uniformity across the counties) be part of the Democratic GOTV strategy? The voter suppression argument was very effective at generating high turnout levels among minority voters in 2012. Republicans have to worry it could have the same effect in 2014.

13. What will be the dominant issue(s)? For the past three election cycles in Florida, it has been the economy. Exit polls show that in 2008, 62% of the state’s voters cited the economy as the issue most affecting their vote choice. In 2010, it was 69%, and in 2012, it was 62%. Health care was the second most cited vote- driving issue in 2008 (8%), 2010 (16%), and 2012 (17%) which increases the likelihood that a big issue in 2014 could well be the impact of the Affordable Health Care Act which will be more fully in place by then. Education and environmental issues are always mainstays of Florida gubernatorial elections, as are fiscal issues (taxing, spending, debt, and more recently, government employee benefits and pensions).

14. How much influence will gubernatorial debates have? How many and where will they be and who will sponsor them? In the past, Floridians have acknowledged debates to be a critical source of information affecting their eventual vote choice. But the proliferation of debates in 2012, candidate and audience dissatisfaction with various formats and moderators, and claims of media bias depending on the ideological bent of the cable/network carrying them make the 2014 gubernatorial candidates less anxious to engage in more than a couple of debates.

15. Will concerns about unwanted and excessive government intrusion into the lives of voters alter candidates’ and parties’ use of social media in campaign advertising and GOTV efforts? Current polling shows a majority of Americans believe the federal government is too intrusive in their lives and threatens their individual liberties. At the same time, polls show less animosity toward state and local governments. This brings full circle the question of whether the 2014 governor’s race will be “nationalized” (a macro-level election) or more focused on Florida-specific concerns (a micro-level election).

Today’s distrust of “all things political” makes finding a way to reach Florida voters the biggest challenge of all for next year’s gubernatorial candidates.