So You Want a Third Party or Independent Presidential Candidate?

Susan A. MacManus, Distinguished University Professor, USF

(With the assistance of Anthony A. Cilluffo, research associate)

Recent polls show that many Americans are longing for a presidential candidate other than Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump—the presumptive nominees of the nation’s two major political parties.  Talk of a third, or minor, party candidate, or someone truly running as an independent is rampant. (In Florida, a minor party is one with less than 5% of the state’s total registered voters.) History tells us the likelihood of success for either type of alternative candidate is low, although 2016 is certainly no typical election year.     

Has a candidate who doesn’t belong to one of the major political parties ever been elected president?

·      Since the emergence of the modern two-party system (Democrat v. Republican) in the 1850s-1860s, every president has been from one of the two major parties.

·      The only president not from one of the two major national parties at the time of their respective elections was George Washington (president 1789-1797), who technically ran as an independent. The first political party was founded in 1787—the Federalists—of which Washington was a de facto member, along with other prominent founding fathers such as Alexander Hamilton and John Adams. In 1796, anti-Federalists gathered around Thomas Jefferson. Members of Jefferson's group called themselves Democratic-Republicans[i]. Together these two parties were the origins of the American political party system.

·      While there are always numerous candidates for president (52 have already filed to run in Florida this year), few garner at least 5% of the popular vote, and even fewer win a state, thereby accumulating Electoral College votes. (To become president, a candidate must get 270 Electoral College votes.) From 1968 to the present, just three minor party or independent candidates have won at least 5% of the vote (George Wallace—‘68, John Anderson—‘80, and H. Ross Perot—’92 and ‘96). Only Wallace secured any Electoral College votes (46) with his wins in Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Louisiana, and Mississippi.  (See Table 1.)

Table 1. Prominent Third Party or Independent Candidates for President

1856-2012

Sources: David Leip. “United States Presidential Election Results.” U.S. Election Atlas, published online, 2016. <http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/index.html>.

National Archives and Records Administration. “Historical Election Results.” Published online, 2016. <http://www.archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/votes/index.html>.

Notes: Only third party and independent candidates that earned at least 5% of the national popular vote are shown.

The one electoral vote from North Carolina for George Wallace in 1968 came from a faithless elector. Richard Nixon won the popular vote in the state.

The Formation of Third Parties is Comparatively Easy in Florida

·      It is relatively easy to form a third party in Florida compared to other states.  According to the Florida Division of Elections, registering a minor party in Florida only requires that the group designate a group of current officers, executive committee, and submit a constitution and bylaws. In a number of other states, party formation requires registered voters to sign petitions. (See Florida Division of Elections registration checklist at the end of the article[ii].) In Florida, to seek a spot on the November ballot, a minor party candidate must notify county supervisors of elections by July 15 that it plans to collect valid signatures from 1 percent of the state’s registered voters from the last general election. That would amount to about 120,000 signatures.

·      Florida currently has nine minor parties. (See Table 2.) The three largest are the Independent Party of Florida, the Independence Party of Florida, and the Libertarian Party of Florida.  Each of the other parties has less than 1/10 of 1 percent of the state’s 12,060,748 registered voters, the total as of Feb. 16, 2016. The Libertarian Party by far runs more candidates for national and state offices than the others. In fact, many voters erroneously think they are registering as true independents when they register with either of the minor parties with independent/independence in their names rather than as with No Party Affiliation (NPA).

Table 2. List of Florida Major and Minor Political Parties by Registrants

As of Presidential Preference Primary Book Closing (February 16, 2016)

Source: Florida Division of Elections. “2016 Presidential Preference Primary Active Registered Voters by Party.” Published Online, 2016. <http://dos.myflorida.com/media/696035/ppp2016_countyparty.pdf>.

Notes: Percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding.

According to the Florida Department of State, a “Minor” party is any party with less than 5% of the state’s total voters registered.

What are the procedural and practical challenges facing third party or independent presidential candidates?

·      Time. Currently, time is the biggest obstacle facing any candidate from a third party —especially a newly-formed third party —or one who runs as an independent.  State laws differ as to party formation timetables and, even more importantly, deadlines for getting on the November ballot (filing deadlines).  The deadline in Texas has already passed. Others are looming. (See Table 3.)

In terms of ballot access, among third parties, the Libertarians are on track to get on the ballot in all 50 states plus the District of Columbia; they are on the ballot in 33 states so far. The Green Party and Constitution Party are further behind; the Green Party is now on the ballot in 21 states, and the Constitution Party is on the ballot in about 18 states.[iii]

·      Resources. Money, media attention, a credible candidate, and an extensive and effective grassroots get-out-the-vote (GOTV) organization are essential. Without these, it is difficult to win any states, and without state victories, a candidate cannot accumulate any Electoral College votes. Of modern day third party/independent candidates, only Wallace accumulated any Electoral College votes.

Table 3. Independent Candidate Filing Deadlines and Electoral Votes by State

¹Notes: While most states have the same filing deadlines for independent and third party candidates, the following states have different filing deadlines for third party candidates: AR, KS, NV, OH, SD, TN, TX, VT, WI and WY.

This chart is provided for reference only and the elections chief of each respective state should be consulted for the most up-to-date information.

Sources: Eileen J. Leamon. “2016 Presidential Primary Dates and Candidate Filing Deadlines for Ballot Access.” Federal Election Commission, April 21, 2016. <http://www.fec.gov/pubrec/fe2016/2016pdates.pdf>.

National Association of Secretaries of State. “Summary: State Laws Regarding Presidential Ballot Access for the General Election.” Published Online, February 2016. <http://www.nass.org/component/docman/?task=doc_download&gid=1331&Itemid=>.

Richard Winger. “2016 Petitioning for President.” Ballot Access News, October 2015. <http://ballot-access.org/2015/10/28/october-2015-ballot-access-news-print-edition/>.

Who are some of the best known third-party or independent candidates to succeed at lower levels – say U.S. senator or governor?

·      From 1990 to the present, 6 third party and 6 independent candidates have won seats in the U.S. Congress (Senate; House) or been elected governor.  The bulk of these successes have been in the eastern or Midwestern (Minnesota) states. (See Table 4.)

·      One is now a candidate for the Democratic nomination for president of the United States—Democratic Socialist Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont.

Table 4. Notable Successful Third Party or Independent Officeholders,

U.S. Congress and State Governors: 1990-2016

Note: ²Barkley was appointed to the position by Minnesota Governor Jesse Ventura after the death of Senator Paul Wellstone (D-MN).

What are the odds that third party or independent candidates will attract a lot of votes?

Long-Shot Possibilities (but Low Probabilities) in 2016

·      An independent or third-party candidate scores high enough in polls—at least 15 percent in 5 national polls—to be included in presidential debates. (It is a major challenge for independent or minor candidates to even be mentioned in mainstream polls. In the few polls that Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson has been mentioned in, he has garnered support from around 10-11 percent of the respondents.) The candidate’s presence on the national stage could inform voters across the country that they had another option beyond the Democrat and Republican Party nominees.

·      An independent or third-party candidate wins enough states to keep either major-party candidate from winning the requisite 270 Electoral College votes to be elected president, thereby sending it to the newly-elected U.S. House of Representatives who select from the top 3 candidates (each state casts one vote).

·      An independently-financed candidate jumps in —less of a resource problem—but still a time problem.

·      A well-known candidate runs as the nominee for an existing minor party —less of a time problem, but still a major resource challenge. Nationally, the two strongest minor parties in 2016 remain the Libertarian Party and the Green Party. 

Will history prevail? If not, is 2016 merely an anomaly, or is it truly a turning point in party politics?

·      The opinions of many —especially in the pundit class—are that the success of either a third party or independent candidate in 2016 is merely “a pipe dream,” or “wishful thinking,” with the odds of succeeding as “slim to none.” 

·      The party establishment types who are loathe to support their party’s nominee are hopeful 2016 is just an anomaly. Meanwhile, they are still hopeful an alternative they can support will surface, although time is fleeting. These are the #NeverTrump Republicans and the #NeverHillary Democrats.

·      The strong anti-establishment voters who dislike both political parties would like nothing better than to see the demise of the two-party system.  Significant is the fact that more Americans are choosing to register with neither of these parties. This pattern is sharpest among the nation’s largest generation—the millennials.  One recent poll found that among millennial voters, 91% of those 28 or younger want to see an independent on the ballot.[iv] These are the get-rid-of-the-two-party-system voters.

One thing is certain:  Florida voters will be in the thick of things!