Dr. Susan A. MacManus, Distinguished University Professor, USF

Anthony A. Cilluffo, Research Associate

August 2016

“It’s extremely important to watch the state legislative level because it’s the bench for Congress and higher office, for statewide, for governors and congressional offices.”[1]

Leaders in both major political parties know their future in Florida depends upon building a strong bench. Increasingly, the state House of Representatives is seen as the best place to begin growing the candidate pool for higher offices.

A sense of urgency enfolds the coming election. More Floridians are registering as independents (No Party Affiliation) or with a minor party (Libertarian). This abandonment of the two major parties is more acute among younger voters, particularly the millennials (18-34 years of age)—the nation’s largest generation and its most racially/ethnically diverse. The message is clear: successful party building (or re-building) requires recruiting younger candidates and contesting more legislative seats.  

Here we analyze the political and demographic backgrounds of the 188 first-time candidates for the Florida House (61% of the 309 total candidates). The timing of this analysis (prior to the August 30 primary) enables us to compare each major party’s field of first-time candidates vying for their party’s nomination as well as those choosing to run as a Libertarian, No Party Affiliation (NPA), or a write-in candidate.

This year’s class of first-time candidates is in some ways more diverse than the electorate it seeks to represent—but more aligned with the projected demographic future of Florida.

Key Questions

Key questions guiding this analysis include the following:

·      Who are the first-timers? What is their party affiliation? Gender? Race/Ethnicity? Age?

·      How do they differ from repeat candidates for the state House?

·      Where do first-timers choose to run? For open seats, or seats with an incumbent?

·      How do Democrat and Republican first-timers differ from each other and in their selection of districts from which to run? Do they run against other first-timers? In districts currently controlled by their party?

Major Findings: Five Takeaways

In analyzing first-time House candidates, we identify five key takeaways:

1.     Compared to the field of repeat candidates,first-time candidates are more likely than repeat candidates to be Democrats (52% to 39%), black (27% to 14%), and under age 50 (58% to 46%). They are equally likely to be Hispanic (13% to 12%) and female (25%).

2.     From a partisan perspective, Democratic first-timers are running in more House districts (60 vs. 38) than Republicans and are less prone to run against another first-timer of their own party affiliation (59% to 67%). The spike in Democratic first-time candidacies may be due partly to 2016 being a presidential election year, when Democratic turnout is typically higher than in midterm elections and a larger proportion of the population is highly engaged with politics. Regardless, it comes as good news for Florida Democrats who have been criticized in the past for having a weak bench.

3.     From a diversity perspective,the Democratic field of first-time candidates is more diverse than the Republican pool in race/ethnicity (67% vs. 17% nonwhite), age (64% vs. 42% under age 50), and gender (30% vs. 23%).The Democratic field of newcomers more closely reflects the demographics of Florida’s millennials—young and racially/ethnically diverse. From a gender perspective, a bit of good news for Republicans is that a larger share of female than male Republican candidates are first-timers (56% vs. 47% males) but among Democrats the reverse is true (70% males vs. 62% females).

4.     From a media market perspective, the largest numbers of first-time candidates come from the Orlando, Miami, and Tampa media markets—more than 35 each. These are Florida’s three largest media markets in registered voters and home to the most House districts (Tampa 29, Miami 27, Orlando 23). The Miami market has the greatest racial/ethnic diversity of first-time candidates in the state, fielding more than half of the first-timer Hispanics and a large share of first-timer blacks as well. A large proportion of Miami market first-time candidates are Democrats, reflecting the overall registration statistics in the area (46% D, 26% R). Orlando has the greatest partisan diversity of first-time candidates, reflecting the intense competitiveness of the area (June 2016 voter registration: 36% D, 36% R). There are also more minority and Democratic first-timers running in the Tampa market—although like Orlando, it is a very partisan competitive area (registration: 35% D, 37% R).

5.     From a seat selection perspective,open seats (no incumbent) are a big draw. In 2016, 70 percent of first-timers are running for an open seat compared to 27 percent of repeat candidates. Republican first-timers are more likely than Democrats to run in an open seat district (85% vs. 59%).  Conversely, first-time Republican candidates are far less likely than Democratic newcomers to run against an incumbent (14% vs. 41%). This suggests that the strategy of Republican first-timers focuses more on the short term (winning seats), while that of the Democrats focuses more on the long term (increase party competitiveness in more districts). 

Looking Ahead: Why Building and Strengthening a Bench Is Vital to Parties

A key challenge for both parties, regardless of who wins on August 30th and November 8th, is how to maintain the enthusiasm of the defeated first-time candidates. There are many more first-time candidates than can be accommodated in office, but each of these hopefuls has demonstrated two crucial characteristics of interest to the parties—a desire to run and to be involved in their community. Particularly in the era of widespread party disillusionment and the rise of the NPA voter, these reserves of partisan enthusiasm are more important than ever.

Will the parties reach out to their defeated first-time candidates and offer mentorship, encouragement, and advice for future runs? Or will they ignore those that lost and focus scarce party resources solely on those that are successful in obtaining office? Building a large bench of potential successful candidates would depend on the former, while building a strong bench for higher statewide and federal offices may depend more on the latter.

The strength of each party’s respective benches is particularly crucial in a state whose demographics are changing so rapidly. It is projected that, by 2035, whites will no longer be a majority in Florida, accounting for only 49 percent of the state’s population, while blacks will account for 17 percent and Hispanics 30 percent of the state’s population.[2] Furthermore, a higher proportion of women is graduating from college than men, which is significant because more college than non-college educated persons run for and win elective office.

What does this mean? In the coming decades, the Republicans will have to improve their outreach to minority voters if they wish to maintain their current strength in statewide races. Moreover, both parties will need to work to recruit more female candidates. The future of the two major parties is at stake.

The Analysis: A Closer Look

(Figures and Tables are at the end of the article)

Who Are Florida’s 2016 First-Time Candidates?

Of the 309 candidates running for the Florida House of Representatives this election, 188 (61%) are first-timers.

As stated earlier, first-time candidates are more likely than repeat candidates to be Democrats, blacks, and under the age of 50.  There is little difference between newcomer and repeat candidates with regard to gender or Hispanic heritage. (See Table 1.)

Compared to overall voter registration statistics[3], first-time candidates are much more likely to be Democrats (52% to 38%), black (27% to 13%), and young (58% to 44% under 50). Hispanic first-timers more closely reflect the proportion of Hispanic registrants (13% to 15%). But fewer first-time candidates are female (25% to 53%) or are running for a minor party (Libertarian) or as an NPA (4% to 26%).

Differences in First-Timer Demographic Diversity by Party Affiliation

A higher proportion of Democratic Party candidates are first-timers than Republican Party candidates (67% to 49%). There are also high rates of newcomers among NPAs (63%) and write-in candidates[4] (95%), reflecting growing voter disillusionment with the two major parties. (See Figure 1.)

Race/ethnicity. The first-time candidates of both major parties are more diverse than their respective repeat candidates. Two-thirds of Democratic newcomers are nonwhite compared to only 17 percent of Republican first-time candidates. Among Republican candidates, the proportion of Hispanic first-timers is lower than among repeat candidates. (See Figure 2.) This latter statistic is worrisome to some Republican activists in light of the rapid growth rate of Hispanics in our state.

Two first-time Asian candidates are running for the Florida House: Peter Pham (Vietnamese) in Orlando-area District 45 and Sajan Kurian (Indian) in Fort Lauderdale-area District 92. Both men are running as Democrats in crowded primaries—Pham has four opponents and Kurian has three. Asians are the fastest growing ethnic group in the state and these two geographically varied candidacies reflect the growing political clout of Florida’s Asian community. As of August 2016, Asians accounted for 2 percent of the state’s registered voters.[5]

Age. Overall, Democratic newcomers are younger than their Republican counterparts (64% vs. 45% younger than 50). Noticeably different, Republicans have fielded more candidates at both ends of the age spectrum: 20[6] to 29 years old (9% to 7%) and 70 to 79 years old (8% to 3%). (See Figure 3.)

Gender. First-time candidacy patterns are considerably different in gender. Among Democrats, a higher proportion of male than female candidates is running for the first time (70% vs. 62%). The reverse is true among Republicans (female first-timers—56%; males—47%). (See Figure 4.)

Deciding Where to Run: Open Seats a Magnet for First-Timers

Open seats, defined as a district in which the incumbent is not running for re-election to the seat, are particular draws for first-time candidates. Fully 80 percent of the candidates in open seat races are first-time candidates, compared to 39 percent of those challenging a sitting incumbent. A higher percentage of Republican than Democratic first-time candidates are running in open seats (85% vs. 59%).

Male first-timers are slightly more likely to run in an open seat than females (81% vs. 78%). So, too, are black (87%) and Hispanic (79%) than white (77%) newcomers.

Age is not as strong a predictor of location decisions: An equal proportion of first-timers in open seats and seats with incumbents are younger than 50 years old (58%).

Media Markets with Highest Concentrations of First-Timers

The three largest media markets draw the most newcomers—more Democrats than Republicans. In deciding where to run, first-time candidates tend to gravitate toward the media markets of Orlando, Miami and Tampa, each of which has more than 35 first-time candidates of various party or other affiliations. (See Table 2.)  These location decisions are not surprising. These three media markets contain more districts from which to run and more diverse populations.

The Orlando-Daytona Beach-Melbourne market has both the highest number of first-time candidates of any media market (44) and the greatest diversity in affiliation of first-time candidates: 21 Democrats, 13 Republicans, and 10 Libertarian, NPA or write-in candidates. The Miami-Fort Lauderdale market has the second highest number of first-time candidates, 37, more than three-fourths of whom are Democrats. The Tampa-St. Petersburg-Sarasota market has the third-highest number of first-time candidates, 36, two-thirds of whom are Democrats.

First-time black candidacies are geographically diverse. Five media markets have five or more first-time black candidates: Orlando (11), Miami (11), Jacksonville (9), Tampa (8) and West Palm Beach (5). Conversely, the first-time candidacies of Hispanics are much more concentrated: nearly half, 12 of 25, are in Miami, while Orlando and Tampa each has five.

There are still wide disparities in female participation. More than half of House districts do not have a female candidate (66 of 120). Fifty-four districts have at least one female candidate, 17 districts have two, and in three districts, there are three first-time female candidates. (See Table 3.)

Most of the races with multiple female newcomers are in south Florida—three in the West Palm Beach-Fort Pierce market and three in the Miami-Fort Lauderdale market. The remaining contests are scattered across the state: two in the Tampa-St. Petersburg-Sarasota market, and one each in the Orlando-Daytona Beach-Melbourne, Gainesville and Jacksonville markets.  Most of these districts (8 of the 11) are currently held by Democrats, although both Tampa market districts are held by Republicans.

Creating Competition: Party Differences in First-Timer Location Decisions

Having an army of diverse first-time candidates can have an unintended consequence if those candidates all run against each other and the defeated candidates then lose interest in political office. Therefore, an important question is the degree to which each party’s bench of first-time candidates can potentially eliminate each other in primary contests. Across all first-time candidacies, 56 percent of all first-time candidates are facing another first-time candidate of their own party affiliation.

Republicans. The 66 Republican first-time candidates are spread across fewer than a third of all 120 House districts, 38 districts. Of these, 22 races feature only one first-time Republican candidate. This means that 44 of 66 first-time Republican office-seekers are facing other Republican first-timers—two-thirds of the Republican Party’s first-time candidate class is running against their peers. (See Figure 5.)

Democrats. The 97 Democratic first-time candidates are spread across half of all 120 House districts. Two-thirds of these, 40 races, feature only one Democratic first-time candidate. However, more than half the Democratic first-time candidate class, 59 percent, is fighting their peers as well. (See Figure 6.)

NPAs/ Write-Ins. There are 25 first-time Libertarian, NPA or write-in candidates running in a total of 23 districts. Of these, there are two races in which two of these candidates are running against each other—both races have two write-in candidates (Districts 18 and 21).

Minorities Running Against Each Other. In 10 districts[7] two or more black Democratic first-time candidates are running for the same seat. All these districts are currently controlled by Democrats, with four in Miami or Palm Beach, three in the I-4 Corridor (Tampa and Orlando) and the remaining three in Jacksonville or Tallahassee—large metropolitan areas with sizable black populations and histories of minority electoral success.At least three of the 10 districts feature at least four black first-timers fighting for the same seat. Although the Republicans have fewer first-time candidates—fewer minority first-time candidates especially—they have only one district[8] with a similar intra-factional battle between three first-time Republican Hispanic office-seekers.

Women Running Against Each Other. Nine districts have two female first-time candidates running against each other, and two districts have a three-way fight between female first-timers.[9] Five races are between multiple first-time Democratic females, while two races are between multiple first-time Republican female candidates. Over half of these races (6 of 9) are in Miami or Palm Beach. All but two of these races are for open seats, with the two races of multiple female first-time candidates challenging an incumbent both occurring in the I-4 Corridor.

Current Party Control of District. Another important consideration for a first-time candidate is choosing whether to run for a seat that is already safely in the party’s possession or to mount a challenge for a seat currently held by the opposite party. Given the partisan balance in the Florida House (81R, 39D), the Democrats have a greater urgency to run for seats controlled by Republicans.

Most Republican first-time candidates (54 of 66, or 82%) are seeking election to a seat currently held by the Republican Party, while more than half (52 of 97, or 54%) of the Democratic newcomers are running for Democratically controlled seats. (See Table 4.) 

The fact that 46 percent (45 of 97) of Democratic first-time candidates are running for seats currently held by Republicans suggests that Democratic first-time candidates are working hard to expand their party’s presence in the Florida House of Representatives, while Republican first-timers are more focused on keeping the party’s legislative super-majority.

Figures and Tables

Table 1. Demographic and Political Backgrounds of First-Time Florida House Candidates

Note: “First-time candidate” includes all candidates that have not previously run for the Florida House.

Source: Data from calculations by the authors using data from the Florida Division of Elections, including the official voter registration extract file as of July 2016 and the official candidate listing as of August 10, 2016.

Figure 1. Major Parties Have Lower Percentage of First-Time Candidates

Note: “First-time candidate” includes all candidates that have not previously run for the Florida House.

Source: Data from calculations by the authors using data from the Florida Division of Elections, including the official voter registration extract file as of July 2016 and the official candidate listing as of August 10, 2016.

Figure 2. Racial/Ethnic Differences in First-Time Candidates by Party

Note: “First-time candidate” includes all candidates that have not previously run for the Florida House.

Source: Data from calculations by the authors using data from the Florida Division of Elections, including the official voter registration extract file as of July 2016 and the official candidate listing as of August 10, 2016.

Figure 3. Democratic First-Time Candidates Younger Than Republican First-Timers

Note: "First-time candidate” includes all candidates that have not previously run for the Florida House.

Source: Data from calculations by the authors using data from the Florida Division of Elections, including the official voter registration extract file as of July 2016 and the official candidate listing as of August 10, 2016.

Figure 4. First-Time Florida House Candidates by Gender and Party

Note: “First-time candidate” includes all candidates that have not previously run for the Florida House.

Source: Data from calculations by the authors using data from the Florida Division of Elections, including the official voter registration extract file as of July 2016 and the official candidate listing as of August 10, 2016.

Table 2. Highest Concentration of First-Timers: Orlando, Miami, Tampa Media Markets

Note: “First-time candidate” includes all candidates that have not previously run for the Florida House.

Source: Data from calculations by the authors using data from the Florida Division of Elections, including the official voter registration extract file as of July 2016 and the official candidate listing as of August 10, 2016.

Table 3. Most Districts Do Not Have a Female Candidate

Note: Numbers include all candidates, not just first-time candidates.

Source: Data from calculations by the authors using data from the Florida Division of Elections, including the official voter registration extract file as of July 2016 and the official candidate listing as of August 10, 2016.

Figure 5. Republicans Have First-Time Candidates

 in Fewer than a Third of All 120 Districts

Note: “First-time candidate” includes all candidates that have not previously run for the Florida House.

Source: Data from calculations by the authors using data from the Florida Division of Elections, including the official voter registration extract file as of July 2016 and the official candidate listing as of August 10, 2016.

Figure 6. Democrats Have First-Time Candidates

in Half of All 120 Districts

Note: “First-time candidate” includes all candidates that have not previously run for the Florida House.

Source: Data from calculations by the authors using data from the Florida Division of Elections, including the official voter registration extract file as of July 2016 and the official candidate listing as of August 10, 2016.

Table 4. Democratic First-Timers More Likely to Challenge Opposite Party

Note: “First-time candidate” includes all candidates that have not previously run for the Florida House.

Source: Data from calculations by the authors using data from the Florida Division of Elections, including the official voter registration extract file as of July 2016 and the official candidate listing as of August 10, 2016.