Early Visit Patterns of 2018 Democratic Gubernatorial Candidates:

Where, When, & Why

Susan A. MacManus

Distinguished University Professor

University of South Florida, Tampa Campus

Amy N. Benner

Research Associate

Florida’s 2018 race for governor has already been labeled one of the top gubernatorial races in the country—and a toss-up.[1] For the first time in decades, both of Florida’s major political parties have highly competitive primaries. The primary election itself is not until August 28, making it one of the latest primaries in the nation. (Florida is a closed primary state.)

This analysis tracks the in-person candidate events of four Democrats (Andrew Gillum, Gwen Graham, Chris King, Philip Levine) running to be the party’s nominee for governor—the frontrunners as measured by inclusion in polls, media coverage, and campaign contributions.[2] Visits data from the time of each candidate’s formal announcement through Sunday, February 25, 2018 were gathered from candidate press releases, Tweets and Facebook postings, the News Service of Florida, newspapers, and blogs. (It is, of course, possible we may have missed some visits that were not well-publicized.)

Why Such an Early Interest in Candidate Visits?

Following the close 2016 presidential contest, both parties touted the need to “return to the grassroots” and to rely less on “big data” and incredibly-costly TV ads in a 10 media-market state. Already-formally announced gubernatorial candidates have “hit the road” early. The first Democrat, Gillum, announced on March 1, 2017, followed by Graham (May 2), King (April 4), and Levine (November 1).

As this analysis shows, Florida’s leading Democratic candidates for governor to date have been quite strategic in their decisions as to where, when, and how they should schedule in-person visits in this early stage of the primary election battle. These decisions are important especially in highly competitive multi-candidate primaries, because in such situations policy differences between the candidates often are much smaller[3], making outreach efforts more critical. Another reason is that historically turnout in Florida midterm election primaries has been relatively low—and declining. (See Figure 1.)

Figure 1. Florida Primary Election Turnout Trending Downward Since Mid-1950s

What Can Early Visits Accomplish?

Making the rounds early can help all candidates, although differently depending on the targeted audience, the candidate’s name recognition, and his/her campaign’s financial status. Visiting political party organizations—state and county committees, caucuses, and conventions—helps a candidate secure volunteers early in the process. Grassroots supporters play a major role in turning out friends and neighbors—critical in low turnout primaries. Party activists are also among the those most likely to vote in low-turnout primary elections. Meeting with key groups can lock in endorsements of prominent local community leaders or organizations—political, economic, and demographic. Participating in issue-centric events like rallies, marches, and protests can enhance one’s credibility with critical base constituencies. Media-generating visits to parts of the state where a candidate is less well-known can improve name recognition. The challenge for candidates is to figure out the winning mix!

The Democrats

The four leading Democrats shared one thing in common when they announced: they were best described as regional candidates—better known in their own backyards than in the state at-large. They differ from past Democrats running for governor in that a larger share of them have never held a position in state government or Congress; two are current or previous mayors (Gillum, Levine) and one has never held public office (King). Only Graham has taken the more traditional path (Congress).

Who are Florida’s Registered Democrats? There are more Florida voters registered with the Florida Democratic Party than any other single affiliation category – 4.8 million as of January 2018. Within this group, there are notable differences by race, gender, age, and media market of residence.[4]

• Racial and ethnic minorities make up more than half (51.5%) of Florida’s registered Democrats: blacks (28.6%), Hispanics (16.8%), Asians or Pacific Islanders (1.6%), and those of some other race (4.5%). Non-Hispanic whites are 48.5% of the party’s registrants.
• The party has a female face. Women are 58% of the state’s registered Democrats, while 40% are men.[5]
• Nearly half (46%) of Florida’s registered Democrats are younger than 50-years-old: 18- to 29 years-of-age 16.5%; ages 30 to 49 29.1%. Among older Democrats, 26.3% are ages 50 to 64, and 28.1% are 65-years-old or older.
• Two-thirds of Florida’s registered Democrats live in one of three media markets: Miami-Ft. Lauderdale (24.8%), Tampa-St. Petersburg-Sarasota (22.0%), and Orlando-Daytona Beach-Melbourne (20.0%). The remaining third is scattered throughout the remaining seven media markets, although relatively few (15.5%) live in the four markets comprising north Florida.[6]

Besides the geographic distribution of potential Democratic primary voters, voter turnout is an important consideration for candidates planning events and outreach. In the 2016 party primary, turnout was highest in the north Florida media markets of Tallahassee and Panama City. It was relatively low in Miami-Ft. Lauderdale, Orlando, and Tampa – the three media markets with the most registered Democrats.[7]

Democrats’ Targeted Voters. For Florida Democrats, key (base) constituencies in 2018 are:

• Women.
• Minorities, including newly-arrived Puerto Ricans.
• Millennials and Gen Xers.
• LGBTQ communities.
• Unions, especially public employee and teachers’ unions.
• Jewish voters.

As this analysis will show, in their visits strategies, some candidates chose to more heavily target key parts of the Democratic base than others. The candidates themselves reflect the party’s diversity: Gillum (race), Graham (gender), Gillum and King (younger generation), Levine (religion).

Issue Focus. To date, big issues of importance to Florida Democrats (not in order of importance) are:

• Education (anti-school choice and charter schools; alternatives to four-year degrees—certificate programs; college affordability).
• Environment (opposition to off-shore drilling; alternative/clean energy sources especially solar; rising sea levels).
• Economy (increase the minimum wage; better paying jobs; affordable housing).
• Health care (for state Medicaid expansion; access to health care; CHIP; opioids).
• Gun control (stricter guns laws—eliminate assault weapons; better background checks; longer waiting period to purchase guns).
• Minority and voting rights (restoration of felon voting rights).
• Criminal justice (rehabilitation; drug sentencing laws; racial sentencing differentials).
• Immigration (Pro-DACA; protection of sanctuary cities).

There is relatively little disagreement among these Democrats on these issues. As noted earlier, that is typical in a highly competitive multi-candidate primary. What is clear is that in strategizing about how to prevail over the other Democrats, these candidates differ in the issues they have chosen to emphasize most often in their visits with potential supporters:

• Graham: education; environment; economy.
• Gillum: education; health care; higher wages; minority rights.
• King: economy (raise minimum wage, jobs); equality—LGBTQ & minorities; Puerto Ricans.
• Levine: climate change; better paying jobs; improving school quality; gun control.

Location of Visits (TV Media Markets). There are competing theories of how to strategically plan the location of early campaign visits. One theory holds that you visit the areas where you are not well known to expand name recognition, especially areas with lots of your party’s registrants. Another is that you keep those who know you best energized. Ignore your home base at your own peril!

To date, the two north Florida candidates have focused a larger share of their visits on large areas outside their home base: Graham (Orlando) and Gillum (Miami). Two have more often stayed closer to home making the most appearances in their home media market: King (Orlando), and Levine (Miami). (See Table 1.)

A majority of each candidate’s appearances have been in the four media markets with the largest shares of all registered Democrats (Miami, Orlando, Tampa, Palm Beach): Graham, 58%; Gillum, 65%; Levine, 74%; and King, 84%. The fact that Orlando has attracted more candidate visits than Tampa most likely reflects outreach to the newly-arrived Puerto Ricans and the propensity of many groups to meet in Orlando.

Table 1. Location of Democratic Candidates’ Visits: TV Media Markets

Note: Purple markets together comprise the famous I-4 Corridor—the most competitive part of the state.

Yellow indicates media market with most visits to date by a candidate; Blue indicates the market with the second most visits.

Source: Calculated by authors; from date of formal announcement to February 25, 2018.

Timing. There have been a record number of major media events that have clearly impacted the timing of Democratic candidate appearances:

A look at the months with the most visits tracks closely with the high-profile activities of great importance to Florida Democrats. (See Table 2.) The link between the timing of a visit and the type of event has been strong for Democratic gubernatorial candidates because a number of these high profile national and state events generate significant interest in, and emotional responses from, Democrats.

Table 2. Timing of Visits: Democrats

Source: Calculated by authors; from date of formal announcement to February 25, 2018.

Type of Event

Choosing what type of event at which one should make a personal appearance is a key part of a candidate’s campaign strategy. This analysis identifies nine types of events. Examples of each type of event are listed below:

Some types of events are more likely to be regarded as “essential” than others—in this case, party-related activities. (See Table 3.) Also popular are community events. These can reach broader audiences and generate more local press to improve name recognition. Rallies and marches, along with speeches, can be targeted to key constituencies whose support and turnout are vital to winning the primary.

Table 3. Type of Event: Democrats

Notes: Unknown: Twitter mention of visit but little or no media coverage, not identifiable other than location and/or date.

Source: Calculated by authors; from date of formal announcement to February 25, 2018.

Aside from party-related events, the candidates have differed in their decisions regarding appearances at other types of events. These choices often reflect what they feel will best attract their targeted voters:

• Gillum: Marches and rallies—March Against Gun Violence; Community events—MLK Day celebration, multiple church visits; Quarterly Faith Leaders Luncheon (targeted audiences—blacks, young people, religious groups).
• Graham: Volunteering—Workdays; Speeches—high schools and union meetings (targeted audiences— working class voters, students & teachers, CWA union, firefighters, law enforcement, women).
• King: Speeches—colleges; Action Alliance for Progress; Community events— solidarity picnic, Labor Day picnics, July 4^th, parades (targeted audiences—young voters, unions, minorities, including LGBTQ).
• Levine: Rally/marches: bus tour (“Live! From Florida’s Living Rooms”); Stoneman Douglas vigils (targeted audiences—young Democrats, Jewish community, minorities; women).

There is, however, one common type of outreach strategy adopted by all these Democratic party primary contenders. They have heeded campaign consultants’ advice to “theme” or “brand” a series of visits. Such an approach helps generate media buzz and excitement among targeted audiences. To date, nearly every candidate has had such a signature event. Predictably, they have differed in their issue emphasis and targeted audiences:

• Gwen Graham: “Workdays”: Taking a page from her father’s campaign and governing playbook, Graham has volunteered in various occupations (from schools to breweries and food pantries) to make her more relatable to working-class Democrats and to increase her appeal to moderates. (She represented a conservative North Florida congressional district and voted for Keystone XL Pipeline.)

• Andrew Gillum: “Back to School” tour: Tour of college campuses, trying to energize college students in support of his Progressive candidacy.
   
• Philip Levine: “Live! From Florida’s Living Rooms” bus tour: Capitalized off critiquing Republican Gov. Rick Scott’s State of the State address; had meetings in the homes of supporters and businesses around the state with very different opinions of Scott’s policies.

• Chris King: “Affordable Living” tour (January 2018); Stops in Democratic voter rich Miami and Palm Beach media markets, emphasizing signature economic issues wages, health care, housing and infrastructure; big issues in area of state with the highest cost of living.

So Far…and What’s Next?

It is clear from this analysis that these Democratic candidates for governor believe that early grassroots efforts can make a difference in besting one’s fellow Democrats in the August primary. To date, each has had a slightly different early visits strategy, especially regarding the type of event and its location. Their early visit patterns reflect strategic calculations as to which components of the Democratic base they perceive are their most likely supporters who will vote (turnout). How, where, and when to reach these key voters can and will change over the next six months. At a minimum, it is likely that this early legwork has already yielded some reassessments within each campaign.

Looking ahead, one thing is for sure: these candidates still have a lot of work ahead of them before August 28. To date, most of them are still relatively unknown, plus there is plenty of evidence that Floridians are weary of contentious primaries. It will be a real challenge to turn out voters in late August, then to put the pieces of each party back together again after what are promising to be highly fractious primaries.

Coming soon… an analysis of Republican candidates’ visits patterns and a brief Democrat-Republican contrast.

Notes

[1] The leading election handicappers all rate the Florida governor’s race as a nail-biter: Cook Report: toss-up; Sabato’s Crystal Ball: toss-up; Inside Elections: toss-up. Reported by Nathaniel Rakich, “The 18(!) Governorships Democrats Could Pick Up This Year,” five-thirty-eight.com, February 22, 2018. Available at https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-18-governorships-democrats-could-pick-up-this-year/

[2] The others have been labeled “political unknowns” by the media. See George Bennett, “Florida Governor’s Race Well Underway: Already 18 Candidates for 2018,” Palm Beach Post, May 28, 2017.

[3] GBA Strategies, “Success Stories”; available at info@gbastregies.com; It is a Democratic consulting firm.

[4] Voters may register to vote or change their registration to a party until the primary book closing deadline of July 30, 2018. Until that date, the composition of the parties may change.

[5] Due to data limitations, it is not possible to know the gender of the remaining 2%.

[6] These four markets are Jacksonville, Tallahassee, Pensacola and the Panhandle, and Panama City.

[7] For more on turnout rates by media market in the 2016 party primary, see Susan A. MacManus and Anthony A. Cilluffo, “Media Market Infographics of Murphy, Rubio & Stanton Wins in U.S. Senate Primaries,” Sayfie Review, August 31, 2016. http://www.sayfiereview.com/featured_column?column_id=67.