with

Amy N. Benner, David J. Bonanza, Anthony A. Cilluffo

“The 2018 elections proved that “Votes for Women” (the suffragists’ rallying cry) has moved from granting women the right to vote to voting for women as candidates…” The same cry will be heard in the 2020 election cycle.

Erin Vilardi, Ms., August 26, 2019

The 2020 election will mark not only the 100^th anniversary of women’s suffrage, but also a record number of women pursing their party’s nomination for president. Across the nation, including here in Florida, interest is growing in how women will use their vote.

In this largely graphic-based analysis, we describe the gender composition of Florida’s officeholders as well as their party, racial and ethnic, and age composition. We look at women voter registrants, their turnout rates, and their vote choices in two past elections (2016, 2018). The key takeaway: Florida’s women officeholders and electorate are diverse, not monolithic.

Current Officeholders

In Florida, women have steadily been making gains in winning elections (executive, legislative, judicial). (See Figure 1.) The current Lieutenant Governor, Republican Jeanette Nuñez, is the state’s first Hispanic woman to hold that office. The state has had three women lieutenant governors in the recent past, all Republicans. (See Figure 2.)

Women of color have made gains in elective office as well. Of the 7 women in Florida’s current congressional delegation, 2 are black (Frederica Wilson, Val Demings), one is Asian (Stephanie Murphy), and one is Hispanic (Debbie Mucarsel-Powell). All are Democrats.

For the first time in history, Florida’s 3-member Cabinet is majority female: Attorney General Ashley Moody, a Republican, and Commissioner of Agriculture Nikki Fried, a Democrat. (See Figure 3.) Furthermore, nearly one-third (30%) of the state’s legislators are women (Florida Senate—6 Democrats, 6 Republicans; Florida House—23 Democrats, 13 Republicans). (See Figure 4.) In the judiciary at the trial court level, 43% of the judges are women. (See Figure 5.)

More women than ever are running for office. Women Republican candidates lagged behind women Democrats in 2018, but the gap may narrow in 2020. Republicans have aggressively recruited women in their party, especially for state legislative seats. Their filings are up.

In addition, more women are playing key roles in political campaigns as campaign managers, consultants, and communication directors. Grassroots volunteerism is also on the upswing among Florida’s women voters. So, too, is giving to individual political campaigns and to women-focused PACs supportive of Florida women running for office (Ruth’s List—Democrats; Maggie’s List—Republicans).

Education Gender Gap

Since the 1950s, women’s college graduation rates have climbed steadily upward. By the late 1990s, a significant gender gap began to emerge. (See Figure 6.) Today more women than men are graduating from Florida’s colleges and universities. (See Figures 7 and 8.) And they are earning more advanced degrees.

Higher education opens the eyes of young women—and young men—to possibilities previously unknown and imparts more knowledge about the importance of civic engagement. Consequently, analysts at least partially credit the recent education gap for the spike in female activism.

Registered Voters

Women comprise a majority (52%) of the Sunshine State’s registered voters. (See Figure 9.) Men make up 45%; another 3% do not report gender. Non-reporting is higher (6%) among voters younger than 30. Younger registrants are more likely to skip over a non-requisite line or to resist a binary definition of gender.

A plurality (41%) of women are registered as Democrats. By contrast, a plurality (38%) of male registrants are registered as Republicans. (See Figure 10.) The gender gap is widest among registered Democrats (58% women, 39% men) and minor party registrants (45% women, 53% men). (See Figure 11.)

Sixty-three percent of Florida’s registered voters are white, but there is greater racial/ethnic diversity among female (38%) than male (34%) registrants. (See Figure 12.)

The gender registration gap is greatest among racial and ethnic minorities, most notably among black registrants (57% women, 41% men), followed by Asians (54% vs. 43%) and Hispanics (54% vs. 44%). (See Figure 13.)

Florida’s registered voters are younger than the stereotype of older voter dominance. Those younger than 50 make up nearly half (45%) of all registrants! (See Figure 14.) But it comes as no surprise that the age gap is greatest among voters 65 and older. Among that cohort, women are 54% of the registrants, men 44%, due in part to longer life spans. (See Figure 15.)

Turnout Rates: 2018 General Election

Registering voters is just step one. Often the bigger challenge is motivating registrants to actually vote. Turnout is usually higher in the presidential than midterm elections, although turnout in the 2018 election went up due in part to highly competitive races. Those races resulted in 6 recounts (3 statewide offices, 3 legislative contests).

In 2018, Florida’s female voter-turnout rate was 63%. (See Figure 16.) It was highest among Republican women and lowest among those with no party affiliation (NPAs). It was higher among white and black registrants and lower among Hispanics, Asians, and other women of color. It was highest among Boomer generation women and lowest among the two youngest generations (Millennials and Gen Zers). (See Figures 17 through 20.)

Overall, women turned out at a slightly higher rates than men (63% vs. 62%). The female-male turnout rate gap was widest among Democrats (66% vs. 62%), blacks (65% vs. 55%), and voters younger than 30 years of age (42% vs. 36%). Generationally, the differential in female-male turnout was highest among Millennials (46% vs. 40%) and GenZers (44% vs. 38%). (See Figures 16 through 20.)

Both major parties are hard at work designing turnout strategies to engage and motivate low-turnout voters in 2020. Why? Because in Florida, the margin of victory in statewide elections in 2018 was a mere half percent, and expectations are that the same pattern will prevail in 2020.

Voting Patterns of Florida’s Women Voters

Florida’s women voters are more divided in their vote choices than their male counterparts, paralleling party registration patterns. In the 2016 presidential contest, 50% of Florida’s women voters supported Clinton, 46% Trump. (The remainder gave no answer.) (See Table 1.) Higher turnout rates and unanticipated levels of cohesiveness among Republican women, in combination with lower-than-projected turnout among younger Bernie-supporting women who did not vote for Hillary Clinton, produced the unanticipated close women’s vote in 2016.

In the 2018 governor’s race, the women’s vote tilted more heavily Democratic, with Democrat Gillum receiving 55% to Republican DeSantis’s 43%. (See Table 2.) Several analysts have attributed that result to younger women, themselves more racially and ethnically diverse and more progressive politically, and to less cohesiveness among college-educated white women.

Looking Ahead to 2020: Targeting Florida’s Women Voters

Based on the data here, it is highly likely that the women’s vote will again be divided rather than cohesive. Some observers are already characterizing 2020 as a base election (one appealing to traditional party supporters). However, that is a rather limited view of Florida’s female electorate and the growing trend of younger voters registering as NPAs.

Looking ahead, Republicans must worry about suburban moms with children (historically swing voters) and the younger generations of women voters who are more racially and ethnically diverse, more progressive politically, and more educated than men of their age.

Democrats face potentially lower turnout among younger Democratic-leaning progressives should a progressive candidate not get the Democratic presidential nomination. Democrats could also encounter resistance among the usual higher-turnout older voters should a hard-left candidate perceived as “socialist” become the party’s nominee. Moreover, they face challenges in how to appeal to specific groups of women of color because they are not a monolithic group.

On the issues, both major parties are describing “all issues as women’s issues,” but each is attempting to frame those issues differently.

Even more challenging in 2020 than in 2016 will be how to target potential voters more divided than ever along generational and racial and ethnic lines.

Graphics

Electoral Successes

Figure 1

Figure 2

Figure 3

Figure 4

Source: Center for American Women and Politics, Rutgers University.

Figure 5

Source: Data (2019) provided by Florida Supreme Court.

College Graduation Gender Gap

Figure 6

Figure 7

Figure 8

Voter Registration

Figure 9

Figure 10

Figure 11

Figure 12

Figure 13

Figure 14

Figure 15

Turnout Rates: Florida’s Women Voters

Figure 16

Figure 17

Figure 18

Figure 19

Figure 20

Florida Women’s Vote Patterns: 2016 Presidential, 2018 Gubernatorial Elections

Table 1

Vote by Gender 2016 Presidential

(All numbers are percentages)

Source: CNN Florida Exit Poll, 2016.

Table 2

Vote by Gender 2018 Florida Gubernatorial Election

(All numbers are percentages)

Source: CNN Florida Exit Poll 2018.