Dr. Susan A. MacManus, USF Distinguished University Professor Emerita

David J. Bonanza, Research Associate

Anthony A. Cilluffo, Research Associate

Multiple events have prompted Florida voters to rethink their party affiliation—from COVID-19, withdrawal from Afghanistan, and school shootings to the U.S. Supreme Court’s overturn of Roe v. Wade, culture wars, and inflation.

In Florida, 548,693 registrants (around 4%) formally changed their party affiliation from January 2021 through September 2022. Some have switched parties; others have ditched the Democrat and Republican parties. This is a brief overview of who changed party loyalties and what difference that could make in the 2022 election. (Detailed graphics appear at the end of the column. Minor parties are excluded from the analysis.)

Key Takeaways

1. The Switchers. Of those who switched, two-thirds left one of the major parties (42% the Democratic Party, 24% the Republican Party), while one-third switched their No Party Affiliation (NPA) registration to a major party (34%). Of the NPAs re-registering with a party, more switched to the Republican than Democratic party.

2. The Ditchers: A Plurality of Major Party Switchers. Of those who ditched either the Democrat or Republican party, more (44%) chose to re-register as No Party Affiliation than as either a Republican (37%) or a Democrat (19%), effectively turning their backs on both parties. Nationally, surveys are showing a growing frustration with each party among the electorate at-large.

3. More Women Switch and to Republican Party. Women change parties more than men and twice as many women switched from Democratic to Republican (51,092) than from Republican to Democrat (19,975). Democrats were counting on garnering more female party switchers, particularly suburban Republican women, after the U.S. Supreme Court’s Dobbs (abortion) ruling and on registering large numbers of younger women. Republicans have focused more on getting conservative moms worried about education and cultural issues to switch to the GOP.

4. Hispanics and Millennials Most Likely to Switch & to GOP. While the overall switching rate was 4%, a higher share of Hispanics (5%) and Millennials (5%) changed their party affiliation during the 19-month period leading up to the midterm. Among Hispanics, four times more switched from Democrat to Republican (21,665) than from Republican to Democrat (5,229). A similar pattern occurred among Millennials; 20,752 switched from Democrat to Republican compared to 7,756 from GOP to Democrat.

5. NPAs Switching More to Republican Party; Democrats Make Some Gains. Republicans have been far more successful at getting NPAs to switch to the GOP than Democrats across all gender, racial, and generational groups with two exceptions. A larger share of both Black (86%) and Gen Z (55%) NPAs have re-registered as Democrats.

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Republicans Gain Most from Party Switching and Ditching

Overall, Republicans have made the largest net gains—fewer left the party (24% of switchers) and more NPAs switched to GOP (62%).

In terms of those switching from one party to the other, Republicans made inroads among women and Hispanics (key Democratic constituencies) and among the more Republican-leaning whites and older generations. By all accounts, Florida Democrats’ election-year registration efforts in 2022 have fallen short of projections. It’s back to the drawing board for the party in the 2024 election.

Switchers and Ditchers in 2022 Midterm Election and Beyond

In a close election, every vote matters. The 2018 gubernatorial race was decided by about 32,500 votes, and the 2018 U.S. Senate race margin was a mere 10,000 votes. Even the comparatively decisive 2020 presidential race in Florida was won by a margin of about 371,700 votes—fewer than the number of voters who have changed parties since then!  

So, what will it be in 2022? Will voters who left the major parties for No Party Affiliation in anger over or disgust with their former party’s policies vote at all, or have they given up on politics completely? Will voters who changed to one of the major parties completely give up their old allegiance and vote a straight ticket, or will they be among the dwindling numbers of split ticket voters?

Even if the 2022 election is not as close in Florida as were the 2018 and 2020 statewide races, the party switching patterns in 2022 have revealed the biggest challenge facing both the Florida Democratic Party and the Republican Party of Florida, namely the growing ranks of the state’s younger generations who are increasingly turning their backs on both and registering as No Party Affiliation. To many younger voters, candidates and issues are often more powerful vote motivators than political party.

Table 1. Summary of Voters Who Changed Parties from January 2021 Through September 2022

Notes: Percentages may not sum to 100% due to rounding. Percentages in the “Overall” row sum across the row. Percentages in for each demographic group sum down the column. Registered voters who are White or Black are not Hispanic.

Generations: Gen Z (born 1997-2012), Millennials (born 1981-1996), Gen X (born 1965-1980), Baby Boomers (born 1946-1964), Silent (born 1928-1945), Greatest (born before 1928). Pew Research Center.

Source: Table created by authors using data from Florida Division of Elections, Florida Voter Registration System (FVRS), as of January 2021 and September 2022.

Table 2. Summary of Voters Who Left the Democratic Party

Between January 2021 and September 2022

Notes: Percentages may not sum to 100% due to rounding. Percentages in the “Overall” row sum across the row. Percentages in for each demographic group sum down the column. Registered voters who are White or Black are not Hispanic.

Source: Table created by authors using data from Florida Division of Elections, Florida Voter Registration System (FVRS), as of January 2021 and September 2022.

Table 3. Summary of Voters Who Left the Republican Party

Between January 2021 and September 2022

Notes: Percentages may not sum to 100% due to rounding. Percentages in the “Overall” row sum across the row. Percentages in for each demographic group sum down the column. Registered voters who are White or Black are not Hispanic.

Source: Table created by authors using data from Florida Division of Elections, Florida Voter Registration System (FVRS), as of January 2021 and September 2022.

Table 4. Summary of Voters Who Left No Party Affiliation

Between January 2021 and September 2022

Notes: Percentages may not sum to 100% due to rounding. Percentages in the “Overall” row sum across the row. Percentages in for each demographic group sum down the column. Registered voters who are White or Black are not Hispanic.

Source: Table created by authors using data from Florida Division of Elections, Florida Voter Registration System (FVRS), as of January 2021 and September 2022.