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Sayfie Review Featured Column

Dr. Susan A. MacManus, USF Distinguished University Professor Emerita

David J. Bonanza, Research Associate

Anthony A. Cilluffo, Research Associate

 

 

Multiple events have prompted Florida voters to rethink their party affiliation—from COVID-19, withdrawal from Afghanistan, and school shootings to the U.S. Supreme Court’s overturn of Roe v. Wade, culture wars, and inflation.

 

In Florida, 548,693 registrants (around 4%) formally changed their party affiliation from January 2021 through September 2022. Some have switched parties; others have ditched the Democrat and Republican parties. This is a brief overview of who changed party loyalties and what difference that could make in the 2022 election. (Detailed graphics appear at the end of the column. Minor parties are excluded from the analysis.)

 

Key Takeaways

  1. The Switchers. Of those who switched, two-thirds left one of the major parties (42% the Democratic Party, 24% the Republican Party), while one-third switched their No Party Affiliation (NPA) registration to a major party (34%). Of the NPAs re-registering with a party, more switched to the Republican than Democratic party.

 

  1. The Ditchers: A Plurality of Major Party Switchers. Of those who ditched either the Democrat or Republican party, more (44%) chose to re-register as No Party Affiliation than as either a Republican (37%) or a Democrat (19%), effectively turning their backs on both parties. Nationally, surveys are showing a growing frustration with each party among the electorate at-large.

 

  1. More Women Switch and to Republican Party. Women change parties more than men and twice as many women switched from Democratic to Republican (51,092) than from Republican to Democrat (19,975). Democrats were counting on garnering more female party switchers, particularly suburban Republican women, after the U.S. Supreme Court’s Dobbs (abortion) ruling and on registering large numbers of younger women. Republicans have focused more on getting conservative moms worried about education and cultural issues to switch to the GOP.

 

  1. Hispanics and Millennials Most Likely to Switch & to GOP. While the overall switching rate was 4%, a higher share of Hispanics (5%) and Millennials (5%) changed their party affiliation during the 19-month period leading up to the midterm. Among Hispanics, four times more switched from Democrat to Republican (21,665) than from Republican to Democrat (5,229). A similar pattern occurred among Millennials; 20,752 switched from Democrat to Republican compared to 7,756 from GOP to Democrat.

 

  1. NPAs Switching More to Republican Party; Democrats Make Some Gains. Republicans have been far more successful at getting NPAs to switch to the GOP than Democrats across all gender, racial, and generational groups with two exceptions. A larger share of both Black (86%) and Gen Z (55%) NPAs have re-registered as Democrats.

.

Republicans Gain Most from Party Switching and Ditching

 

Overall, Republicans have made the largest net gains—fewer left the party (24% of switchers) and more NPAs switched to GOP (62%).

 

In terms of those switching from one party to the other, Republicans made inroads among women and Hispanics (key Democratic constituencies) and among the more Republican-leaning whites and older generations. By all accounts, Florida Democrats’ election-year registration efforts in 2022 have fallen short of projections. It’s back to the drawing board for the party in the 2024 election.

 

Switchers and Ditchers in 2022 Midterm Election and Beyond

 

In a close election, every vote matters. The 2018 gubernatorial race was decided by about 32,500 votes, and the 2018 U.S. Senate race margin was a mere 10,000 votes. Even the comparatively decisive 2020 presidential race in Florida was won by a margin of about 371,700 votes—fewer than the number of voters who have changed parties since then!  

So, what will it be in 2022? Will voters who left the major parties for No Party Affiliation in anger over or disgust with their former party’s policies vote at all, or have they given up on politics completely? Will voters who changed to one of the major parties completely give up their old allegiance and vote a straight ticket, or will they be among the dwindling numbers of split ticket voters?

Even if the 2022 election is not as close in Florida as were the 2018 and 2020 statewide races, the party switching patterns in 2022 have revealed the biggest challenge facing both the Florida Democratic Party and the Republican Party of Florida, namely the growing ranks of the state’s younger generations who are increasingly turning their backs on both and registering as No Party Affiliation. To many younger voters, candidates and issues are often more powerful vote motivators than political party.

 

Table 1. Summary of Voters Who Changed Parties from January 2021 Through September 2022

 

Switchers

Left Democratic Party

Left Republican Party

Left No Party Affiliation

Overall

Number

%

Number

%

Number

%

Number

%

ALL

232,239

42%

131,987

24%

184,467

34%

548,693

100%

Gender

Female

133,757

58

70,520

53

99,513

54

303,790

55

Male

97,514

42

60,902

46

83,256

45

241,672

44

Other/Unknown

968

<0.5

565

<0.5

1,698

1

3,231

1

Race and Ethnicity

White

118,618

51

100,325

76

114,118

62

333,061

61

Hispanic

62,166

27

21,268

16

44,149

24

127,583

23

Black

38,867

17

4,261

3

15,751

9

58,879

11

Asian or

Pacific Islander

3,918

2

2,485

2

3,289

2

9,692

2

Other

8,670

4

3,648

3

7,160

4

19,478

4

Generation

Greatest Gen.

337

<0.5

311

<0.5

197

<0.5

845

<0.5

Silent Gen.

14,379

6

10,703

8

11,161

6

36,243

7

Baby Boomer

62,564

27

39,288

30

51,328

28

153,180

28

Generation X

59,541

26

31,074

24

48,208

26

138,823

25

Millennial

74,005

32

36,118

27

55,988

30

166,111

30

Generation Z

20,188

9

13,763

10

16,815

9

50,766

9

Unknown

1225

1

730

1

770

<0.5

2725

<0.5

 

Notes: Percentages may not sum to 100% due to rounding. Percentages in the “Overall” row sum across the row. Percentages in for each demographic group sum down the column. Registered voters who are White or Black are not Hispanic.

Generations: Gen Z (born 1997-2012), Millennials (born 1981-1996), Gen X (born 1965-1980), Baby Boomers (born 1946-1964), Silent (born 1928-1945), Greatest (born before 1928). Pew Research Center.

Source: Table created by authors using data from Florida Division of Elections, Florida Voter Registration System (FVRS), as of January 2021 and September 2022.

 

Table 2. Summary of Voters Who Left the Democratic Party

Between January 2021 and September 2022

 

Switchers

Went to Republican Party

Went to No Party Affiliation

Overall

Number

%

Number

%

Number

%

ALL

90,780

39%

141,459

61%

232,239

100%

Gender

Female

51,092

56

82,665

58

133,757

58

Male

39,221

43

58,293

41

97,514

42

Other/Unknown

467

1

501

<0.5

968

<0.5

Race and Ethnicity

White

60,238

66

58,380

41

118,618

51

Hispanic

21,665

24

40,501

29

62,166

27

Black

5,219

6

33,648

24

38,867

17

Asian or

Pacific Islander

1,047

1

2,871

2

3,918

2

Other

2,611

3

6,059

4

8,670

4

Generation

Greatest Gen.

184

<0.5

153

<0.5

337

<0.5

Silent Gen.

8,639

10

5,740

4

14,379

6

Baby Boomer

32,696

36

29,868

21

62,564

27

Generation X

23,557

26

35,984

25

59,541

26

Millennial

20,752

23

53,253

38

74,005

32

Generation Z

4,281

5

15,907

11

20,188

9

Unknown

671

1

554

<0.5

1,225

1

 

Notes: Percentages may not sum to 100% due to rounding. Percentages in the “Overall” row sum across the row. Percentages in for each demographic group sum down the column. Registered voters who are White or Black are not Hispanic.

Source: Table created by authors using data from Florida Division of Elections, Florida Voter Registration System (FVRS), as of January 2021 and September 2022.

 

 

Table 3. Summary of Voters Who Left the Republican Party

Between January 2021 and September 2022

 

Switchers

Went to Democratic Party

Went to No Party Affiliation

Overall

Number

%

Number

%

Number

%

ALL

33,589

25%

98,398

75%

131,987

100%

Gender

Female

19,975

59

50,545

51

70,520

53

Male

13,411

40

47,491

48

60,902

46

Other/Unknown

203

1

362

<0.5

565

<0.5

Race and Ethnicity

White

 

24,740

74

75,585

77

100,325

76

Hispanic

5,229

16

16,039

16

21,268

16

Black

2,122

6

2,139

2

4,261

3

Asian or

Pacific Islander

527

2

1,958

2

2,485

2

Other

971

3

2,677

3

3,648

3

Generation

Greatest Gen.

139

<0.5

172

<0.5

311

<0.5

Silent Gen.

4,023

12

6,680

7

10,703

8

Baby Boomer

11,606

35

27,682

28

39,288

30

Generation X

6,354

19

24,720

25

31,074

24

Millennial

7,756

23

28,362

29

36,118

27

Generation Z

3,531

11

10,232

10

13,763

10

Unknown

180

1

550

1

730

1

 

Notes: Percentages may not sum to 100% due to rounding. Percentages in the “Overall” row sum across the row. Percentages in for each demographic group sum down the column. Registered voters who are White or Black are not Hispanic.

Source: Table created by authors using data from Florida Division of Elections, Florida Voter Registration System (FVRS), as of January 2021 and September 2022.

 

 

Table 4. Summary of Voters Who Left No Party Affiliation

Between January 2021 and September 2022

 

 

Switchers

Went to Republican Party

Went to Democratic Party

Overall

Number

%

Number

%

Number

%

ALL

113,862

62%

70,605

38%

184,467

100%

Gender

Female

57,823

51

41,690

59

99,513

54

Male

55,161

48

28,095

40

83,256

45

Other/Unknown

878

1

820

1

1,698

1

Race and Ethnicity

White

79,937

70

34,181

48

114,118

62

Hispanic

26,413

23

17,736

25

44,149

24

Black

2,223

2

13,528

19

15,751

9

Asian or

Pacific Islander

1,748

2

1,541

2

3,289

2

Other

3,541

3

3,619

5

7,160

4

Generation

Greatest Gen.

105

<0.5

92

<0.5

197

<0.5

Silent Gen.

7,149

6

4,012

6

11,161

6

Baby Boomer

33,688

30

17,640

25

51,328

28

Generation X

32,384

28

15,824

22

48,208

26

Millennial

32,406

28

23,582

33

55,988

30

Generation Z

7,541

7

9,274

13

16,815

9

Unknown

589

1

181

<0.5

770

<0.5

 

Notes: Percentages may not sum to 100% due to rounding. Percentages in the “Overall” row sum across the row. Percentages in for each demographic group sum down the column. Registered voters who are White or Black are not Hispanic.

Source: Table created by authors using data from Florida Division of Elections, Florida Voter Registration System (FVRS), as of January 2021 and September 2022.