Millennials and Gen Zers—Florida’s 2024 Swing Voters?

Dr. Susan A. MacManus

David J. Bonanza

Anthony A. Cilluffo

Gone are the days when Baby Boomer and older generations were a majority of Florida’s registered voters. Today, the state’s three youngest generations (Gen X, Millennials, Gen Zers) are the majority (58%), up from 48% just nine years ago. And the two youngest (Millennials and Gen Zers) make up 34% of Florida registrants, a larger share than the Baby Boomers (32%).

Source: Created by authors using Florida Voter Registration System, Florida Division of Elections, April 2024

This phenomenon is significant because practically every dimension of Election 2024 is being framed in generational terms. Much of the focus is on the young generations’ potential impact. The younger generations are less settled in their candidate preferences and still open to persuasion, but less enthusiastic about voting, and in need of more motivation to go to the polls. How they vote, and IF they vote, will determine who wins statewide races. Can they become Florida’s swing voters? But first, a review of definitions.

Generation Definitions. This article uses the generational definitions developed by the Pew Research Center in January 2019:

• Generation Z voters were born in 1997-2012 and are 18-27 years old in 2024. (The youngest Gen Zers are too young to be eligible to vote in 2024.)

• Millennial voters were born in 1981-1996 and are 28-43 years old in 2024.

• Generation X voters were born in 1965-1980 and are 44-59 years old in 2024.

• Baby Boomer voters were born in 1946-1964 and are 60-78 years old in 2024.

• Silent Generation and older voters were born before 194 and are 79 and older in 2024.
   

Will Millennials and Gen Zers Reshape Partisan Politics?

Voters entering the political scene at any given time bring a different set of values and experiences than the voters they’re replacing. Sometimes the differences are slight, and little change is noticed. But at other times, major events can evoke sharp generational differences that reshape partisan politics for several election cycles. The 2024 election has the potential to see Millennials and Gen Zers as more impactful.

Today’s youngest generations have already experienced what seems like a record number of highly impactful events--the COVID pandemic, two severe recessions, school shootings, the emergence of iPhones and social media, intense party polarization, Black Lives Matter protests, and international conflicts. As a result, Millennials and Gen Zers are politically quite different from older generations.

Analyzing these differences suggests answering five key questions.

Five Key Questions about Florida’s Younger Voters in 2024

The two youngest generations, now a larger share of the electorate, are more racially and ethnically and politically diverse than older registrants.

Three Youngest Generations More Racially/Ethnically Diverse

Source: Created by authors using Florida Voter Registration System, Florida Division of Elections, April 2024

Question 1. Are young voters turning their backs on the major parties?

For the most part, older voters are strong partisans. The younger generations are less so. A plurality of both Millennials and Gen Zers are registered as NPAs (No Party Affiliation). Even among younger voters registering as Democrats or Republicans, there is much more parity than in the past. Democrats have just a 3 percentage point registration advantage over Republicans among Gen Zers; among Millennials, it’s 1 percentage point.

Plurality of Gen Z and Millennials Are NPAs (No Party Affiliation)

Source: Created by authors using Florida Voter Registration System, Florida Division of Elections, April 2024

Overall, older Floridians are more Republican, while the younger registrants are more mixed but increasingly leaning independent. The Florida Democratic Party has lost younger voters over the past four years. In 2020, Democrats had a 12 percentage point registration advantage over Republicans. By 2024, the edge had slipped to just 3 percentage points.

Source: Created by authors using Florida Voter Registration System, Florida Division of Elections, October 2020, and April 2024.

Question 2. Will younger voters be motivated to vote by constitutional amendments more than the presidential race?

Exit polls from three recent Florida elections show the importance of younger voter turnout. In all three races, a majority of the 18-29-year-old age group preferred the Democratic candidate: 54% for Hillary Clinton (2016), 60% for Joe Biden (2020), and 55% for Charlie Crist (2022). What differed was that the young voter turnout declined, thereby reducing their share of those who voted. Florida’s young voters were 17% of the 2016 electorate (a 1%-margin-of-victory race), 14% in 2020, and 11% in 2022. If the trend continues in 2024, the turnout of younger voters will continue a downward spiral. And we are already witnessing less enthusiasm among them for the two major party presidential candidates.

Source: Edison Research exit polls for each year, conducted for the National Election Pool, as reported by CNN.

A national poll conducted by Pew Research Center shows that young adults stand out for their dislike of both Joe Biden and Donald Trump. Among adults ages 18-29, 41% said that they have an unfavorable opinion of both Biden and Trump, compared with 15% of adults ages 65 and older who said the same. An FAU Mainstreet Research Survey also shows a higher share of younger than older voters do not plan to vote for either Biden or Trump.

Neither candidate projects youth, diversity, or the ability to connect with younger voters on issues that matter most to them. Young voters today are far more issue- than party-centric.

Source: Modified from Shanay Gracia and Hannah Hartig, “About 1 in 4 Americans Have Unfavorable Views of Both Biden and Trump,” Pew Research Center, March 19, 2024, https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/03/19/about-1-in-4-americans-have-unfavorable-views-of-both-biden-and-trump/.

Higher Proportion of Younger Floridians Not Planning to Vote for Either Biden or Trump

Source: Florida Atlantic University Mainstreet Research Survey conducted from April 15th to April 17th, 2024, among a sample of 865 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Florida.

The survey is intended to represent the voting population in Florida. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.3% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample.

Interviews of younger voters attending the University of Wisconsin’s Madison campus conducted by WAOW TV in February 2024 found that they view the optimum age for a presidential candidate as 40-60 years of age—old enough to have had experience but young enough to be an effective change agent. Younger voters consistently say a generational change in the nation’s political leadership is essential to redirecting the nation in a more positive direction.

If the presidential candidates cannot turn out Florida’s young voters, what can? Perhaps the two proposed constitutional amendments on the November ballot— marijuana legalization (Amendment 3) and abortion rights (Amendment 4)? Expectations among supporters are that they will, particularly once they become more informed about each.

Florida Democrats have the most to gain because a recent Florida Atlantic University Mainstreet Research Survey showed a higher proportion of younger voters (18-34) are aligned with the Democrats’ “Yes” position on these amendments than oppose them, although sizeable portions do not yet have an opinion. Youth turnout will be important to whether those amendments reach the 60% in favor required to pass. They promise to be the critical swing voters, both in how they vote and IF they vote.

About Half of Young Voters Support Amendment 3 (Marijuana Legalization)

Source: Florida Atlantic University Mainstreet Research Survey conducted from April 15th to April 17th, 2024, among a sample of 865 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Florida. The survey is intended to represent the voting population in Florida. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.3% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample.

Source: Florida Atlantic University Mainstreet Research Survey conducted from April 15th to April 17th, 2024, among a sample of 865 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Florida. The survey is intended to represent the voting population in Florida. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.3% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample.

Major Unknowns. If primarily drawn to vote by an amendment(s), will the young generation vote in the presidential race for either Biden or Trump, for a third-party candidate, or just skip the presidential race altogether? Will they skip the presidential race but vote in down-ballot races (Congress, state legislature, local)? These uncertainties will almost guarantee that both major parties will be scrambling for effective ways to inform, message, and get out the younger vote.

Question 3. How will gender differences both between and within generations play out in 2024?

Across all generations, women form a larger share of registrants than men. In Florida, the gender gap is widest among the oldest generation; women’s life expectancies are longer than men’s. Among the youngest generation, the gender gap is narrower because a higher proportion (5%) are choosing not to identify their gender in binary (male, female) terms or don’t want to provide that information to the government. Statistically, their gender is unreported. Almost half (46%) of voters with an unreported gender are Millennials and Gen Zers.

Gender Gap Widest Among Oldest Generation;

More Voters With an Unreported Gender Among Gen Z

Source: Created by authors using Florida Voter Registration System, Florida Division of Elections, April 2024.

Results from the 2024 Spring Harvard Youth Poll showed a wide gender gap in presidential candidate preferences. Sixty-three percent of young female voters favor Biden compared to only half (50 percent) of young men. In other words, Biden has a 33% advantage over Trump among young women, but only a 6% edge among young men.

There are several explanations for the gap. Young women see cultural issues such as abortion and reproductive rights as a higher voting priority and view Trump’s style as chaotic and disrespectful to women, thus they align more with Biden. Young men, especially blue-collar, rate the economy as their top issue, see themselves treated unfairly and being left behind and admire Trump’s “don’t back down” behavior.

Source: Daniel A. Cox, “Have Democrats Given Up on Men?“ AEI Survey Center on American Life, May 2, 2024.

The male-female gender gap among white voters is small (2%) compared to that among voters of color. This striking differential is often attributed to education, a strong predictor of political participation. A larger share of Black, Hispanic, and Asian women than men are graduating from high school and college. The narrower gap among Other (Multi-Racial) registrants is a function of higher levels of voters with an unreported gender Unreporteds who are known to be younger; highest among Gen Zers.

Gender Gap Largest Among Black, Hispanic, & Asian Voters

Source: Created by authors using Florida Voter Registration System, Florida Division of Elections, April 2024.

Growing complexities in societal perceptions of gender are making it more challenging to target voters by gender. It is a primary voting cue for some, less so for others. Thus far, Democrats and minor parties appear to be treating younger women and non-binary voters as critical to success, especially on reproductive and LGBTQ issues. However, KFF, a nonprofit focused on health care research, has cautioned that it may be more effective to downplay party and elevate the issue, particularly with the rise in independent women voters.

Major Parties Will Need to Focus on the Issue More Than Party

To Sway Independent Women on Abortion

Source: KFF Health Tracking Poll of registered voters, conducted February 20-28, 2024.

Question 4. How will candidates micro-target younger voters?

Swaying and turning out younger voters, already lagging in enthusiasm, will be more difficult than ever in 2024. Generational differences in issue priorities and media reliance patterns have elevated the need to better identify top issues and quickly shift attention to newly emerging issues (like the Israel-Hamas conflict) as the campaign progresses. Add to that strategy the pressing need to create more age-relevant messaging.

Issue Priorities. A March 2024 Gallup poll asked those surveyed to rate how important each of a lengthy list of issues was to them. The results were then sorted into issues of greater concern to young rather than old voters and vice versa. While the issues as worded were different, the common thread running through both lists was the importance of pocketbook issues. But clearly, specifics that reflect generational differences in word use are critical to more effective targeting.

Gallup Poll: Specific Issue Priorities Differing Most by Age

Source: Lydia Saad, “Inflation, Immigration Rank Among Top U.S. Issue Concerns,” Gallup, March 29, 2024, https://news.gallup.com/poll/642887/inflation-immigration-rank-among-top-issue-concerns.aspx.

The April FAU Mainstreet Research Survey asked Florida voters of all ages to name the most important issue to them in the 2024 election. Overall, the top three issues cited were Immigration (25%), Economy (23%), and Cost of Living (15%). Those three issues were tops among 18-34 and 35-49-year-olds, although in a different order. As in the Gallup Poll, pocketbook issues dominated.

All Generations of Floridians Rank Pocketbook Issues as Most Important in 2024

Source: Florida Atlantic University Mainstreet Research Survey conducted from April 15th to April 17th, 2024, among a sample of 865 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Florida. The survey is intended to represent the voting population in Florida. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.3% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample.

Abortion was among the top three (third) issues among Florida’s 50-64-year-olds and 65+ voters—age groups in which women are a larger share. Overall, twice as many women as men identified abortion as their most important issue (17% vs. 8%). It was these older women who led the long, hard fight for choice and have vowed to protect it at any cost. Another survey of 18-29-year-olds by All in TOGETHER (Fall 2023) found a higher proportion of young women than men identified abortion as the top issue on which a candidate’s view had to match the voter’s view to get their vote (54% vs. 42%).

Media Reliance Patterns. Younger voters have come of age politically in the digital age and rely more heavily on social media, much of which is created and distributed by their generational peers. Relying on traditional ways of campaigning will fall short in getting out the younger vote in 2024.

At the same time, younger voters are more likely than older voters to view social media and AI as untrustworthy. They also have little trust in the federal government, corporate America, and the traditional news media and are less likely to vote if they feel their vote won’t matter.

Digital News Sources Are Now Dominant

Younger Generations Rely More on Social Media. And Have More Platforms to Use

Source: YouGov, “The US Media Morph: 2024 Trend Report,” January 25, 2024, https://business.yougov.com/content/48440-us-media-trends-report-2024.

Question 5. Will younger candidates running for and winning state and local offices increase or decrease?

In 2024 younger voters are clamoring for younger candidates to run for president. They see generational shifts away from the old to the young as the way to bring about real change in the current political system. Consequently, they might not vote at the rate they did in 2020 and become even further alienated by the two major parties.

 A more intriguing question is whether the number of younger candidates running for state legislature, county, and municipal offices will continue to increase as it has in Florida the last couple of election cycles particularly among young women of color (2020, 2022). 

The filing period for the state legislature (and many local offices) is in June. We won’t know the extent of how many younger candidates will seek these entry-level political offices until then. We also don’t know whether they will run with a party label or choose to run as an NPA. We do know that both major parties are keenly interested in their own futures and thus building a strong bench of potential young candidates. But will they help these younger candidates network, get endorsements, and most importantly, raise money?

Will Today’s Youngest Generations Be Florida’s Swing Voters in 2024?

Younger generations, especially Millennials and Gen Zers, have become the focus of Election 2024. Compared to older generations, they are more likely to shun political parties and lean toward registering as NPAs, and they are more interested in issues than candidates. How they vote, and IF they vote, will determine who wins statewide races and whether the proposed amendments pass. They clearly have the potential to swing the vote in one direction or the other. Candidates will find digital sources and social media more effective than traditional news media in reaching these critical young voters but only if effective messages are used to micro-target them.