The gender gap has become a major focus of the 2024 presidential election. Several recent headlines prove the point: “Boys vs. Girls Election Intensifies” (Axios), “Gender Gap is Defining Feature of Deadlocked Trump-Harris Race” (Wall Street Journal). In the waning days of the campaign, much is being made of Democrat Kamala Harris faring worse with male voters and Republican Donald Trump struggling with women. But the growing attention to the gender gap extends far beyond the presidential contest to races at all levels and amendments on the ballot.

What about Florida? Is there a gender difference in registration patterns, candidate support levels, and issue preferences? Is the gender gap in Florida different from the nation’s? Here, we use graphics to contrast male-female registration patterns, support for Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump, support for U.S. Senate candidates Rick Scott (R) vs. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D), and preferences on two high profile, contentious proposed constitutional amendments: Amendment 3 (Legalization of Marijuana) and Amendment 4 (Right to Abortion).

Registration data are from the Florida Division of Elections. Candidate and amendment preferences data are from recent polls conducted by NBC6/Mason Dixon and the University of North Florida.

Important Distinction: Gender Gap Different from Women’s Vote

“Gender gap” and “women’s votes” are terms sometimes used interchangeably, but they measure two different things. Simply put, the gender gap is the difference between proportions of men and women who support a candidate or an issue, whereas the women’s vote examines only differences among women. In this analysis, we focus on the gender gap.

OUR HOT TAKES

• Women make up a larger share of Florida’s electorate (53%) than men (45%) – an 8-point gender gap. The gap has widened since 2022 (7-point gap).
• Florida’s women registrants are more equally divided by party than nationally (Republican 37%, Democrat 36%, with No Party Affiliation (NPA) at 24% and minor party at 3%). Men registrants strongly lean Republican (43%).
• Gender gaps are also evident when registrants are grouped by party affiliation, age/generation, and race/ethnicity. The widest gaps exist among Florida Democrats (22), the two oldest generations, Silent and Greatest (12), and Blacks (15).
• In both polls examined, the gender gap for Harris and Trump supporters respectively parallels that observed nationally; Harris performs better among women (gender gap 8-10); Trump among men (gender gap 8-11). The same pattern holds for Scott and Mucarsel-Powell, but with wider gender gaps (Scott, 9-14; Mucarsel-Powell, 5-13).
• The most shocking finding is an almost non-existent gender gap for both Amendments 3 (Marijuana Legalization) and 4 (Right to Abortion).

An 8-point gender gap exists in Florida registration, with women making up 53% of registrants as compared to 45% of men. Two percent of registered voters either did not report their gender when registering or prefer a nonbinary definition.

Since 1980, a nationwide trend is women register (and vote) at higher rates than men. Thus, it’s no surprise that amongst Florida’s registered voters, women outnumber men by a significant margin. Explanations for Florida’s growing gender gap include generational replacement (younger replacing older), increased educational attainment, and greater societal focus on issues of concern to women.

Unique to Florida is the near parity in major party affiliation among women registrants. And for the first time Republican women (37%) are a larger share than Democratic women (36%). Men, in contrast, are more strongly affiliated with one party, the GOP (43%); the other 54% are equally divided between Democrats and NPAs. Since party identification typically remains constant and is a strong predictor of vote choice, it won’t be a surprise if Republicans keep Florida red on Election Day.

Notably, gender gaps exist for each generation of Florida voters – with the smallest gap (4) currently amongst its youngest generation (Generation Z). The gender gap remains consistent across other categories (8 for Millennials, Gen X, Boomers), but widens to 12 amongst the oldest age categories (Silent, Greatest Generation). Older women have longer life expectancies than older men. But how does Florida’s generational make-up and registration patterns impact election outcomes?

One major story line this election cycle is the growing gender gap amongst the nation’s youngest voters. These trends show that younger men lean conservative, whereas young women are significantly more likely to identify as liberal and Democratic. Registration patterns in Florida reflect much of the same: Gen Z men are more likely to register as Republicans, and women as Democrats. Millennials follow a similar pattern. What’s also notable for men of both generations is they are more likely to register as NPA than as a Democrat.

A huge gender gap exists among Florida’s registered Democrats (22) compared to registered Republicans, NPAs, and Other (minor parties). This gap within the Democratic Party has grown as the state’s demographics have become more diverse and younger women have become more liberal. By contrast, the gender gap amongst the Florida GOP is non-existent, and relatively small for Florida’s NPAs (2).

A considerably larger gender gap exists among Florida registered Blacks (15), Asian Americans (13), and Hispanics (10) as compared to whites (5). The composition of the Florida Democratic Party consists of higher proportions of women of color, as well as younger women. Women of color, in particular, are far more likely to have higher educational attainment and to be involved in community activities as compared to their male counterparts.

CANDIDATE PREFERENCES

Nationally and in Florida, all eyes are on the presidential race, particularly on whether there’s a gender gap in support for Harris and Trump. The same question extends to Florida’s U.S. Senate race between incumbent Rick Scott and challenger Debbie Mucarsel-Powell. The Senate race outcome will help determine whether Democrats keep control of the U.S. Senate or Republicans take over.

This data affirms what national polls show—Harris is struggling with men and Trump with women. This has resulted in a significant gender gap for both presidential candidates. A question remains about how this gap will influence down-ballot races and proposed constitutional amendments.

In Florida’s U.S. Senate race, the gender gaps appear to be even wider than the presidential contest. Similar to Harris, Mucarsel-Powell appears to struggle in attracting support from men. On the other hand, Scott, like Trump, struggles to gain traction amongst women.

BALLOT MEASURES

Of the six proposed constitutional amendments on Florida’s ballot this election cycle, the two most well-funded and contentious are Legalization of Recreational Marijuana (#3) and Right to Abortion (#4). According to Ballotpedia, Amendment 3 is the most expensive ballot measure ever. Significant attention has also been directed to whether Florida will pass a citizen initiative that enshrines abortion into the state constitution, shortly after the legislature passed a law that restricts access after six weeks of pregnancy.

Surprisingly, no sizable gender gap exists on either Amendment 3 or Amendment 4. In fact, it’s more likely that party affiliation, age, race/ethnicity, and marital/family status are more dominant factors for both men and women in their support or opposition to these amendments. Overall, the ads for each side of each amendment were superbly microtargeted and effective.

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

So, how will Florida’s gender gaps influence election outcomes across the state? We won’t know definitively until after the election. Going forward, both parties and various interest groups will analyze the degree to which election results for candidates and issues (amendments) mirrored pre-election polls and, if not, why. In this election cycle, a huge part of campaign messaging and get-out-the-vote strategizing has been microtargeted via gender. But in Florida, savvy strategists are well aware that women voters are more diverse in their partisan leanings than men. And that historically women vote in higher numbers and at a higher rate than their male counterparts.