For much of 2024, Florida Democrats consistently argued that “Florida IS in play” despite an ever-widening voter registration gap favoring Republicans. The basis of their optimism, especially after Kamala Harris’s nomination, was the belief they could unify, expand, and turn out their traditional bases (women voters, Black voters, Hispanics, young voters) and make inroads among the fast-growing group of No Party Affiliation (NPA) registrants. Turnout rates are the ultimate measure of a party’s success at unifying, expanding, and mobilizing the electorate. Overall, Florida’s turnout rate increased slightly from 77% in 2020 to 78.9% in 2024. Our deep dive into 2024 reveals where turnout was the biggest problem for Democrats as they turned out at a lower rate than Republicans. Turnout data are from the Florida Voter Registration System (FVRS) Extract. Turnout is calculated as the percentage of active registrants who cast a vote.

5 KEY TURNOUT TAKEAWAYS

1. Florida Republicans, with a sizable registration edge, turned out to vote at a significantly higher rate (85%) than registered Democrats (78%) or NPAs (69%).
2. Baby Boomers cast ballots at the highest rate (87%) of any generation—a pattern consistent across party affiliation: Republicans (91%), Democrats (86%), and NPAs (81%).
3. White voters outvoted all other racial groups (83%) and among each party’s registrants—Republicans (86%), Democrats (85%), NPAs (75%).
4. Republican women, who for the first time, outnumbered Democratic women in registration (37% to 36%), turned out to vote at a higher rate (86%) than their Democratic counterparts (79%).
5. Gender gaps in turnout were narrower than expected. The male-female turnout rate gap was 3 percentage points within both the Democrat and Republican parties, with women casting ballots at a slightly higher rate.

Florida’s Voter Registration Trends

Long gone are the days of Florida being viewed as the nation’s most sought-after swing state. Since October 2021, Republicans have been a larger share of the state’s registered voters than Democrats: at book closing for the 2024 general election, 39% of Florida voters were registered Republicans vs. 32% Democrats. Population in-migration during the COVID-19 pandemic, party switching before the 2022 election, and more voters choosing to register as NPAs all contributed to the change. By the 2024 election, there were just 3 percentage points fewer registered NPAs (29%) than Democrats (32%) (Figure 1).

Though one can obsess over voter registration data and fixate on polls and trends in previous elections in attempts to forecast outcomes, this information alone can’t predict turnout – and turnout is what secures victory on Election Day.

Boomers Turn Out!

One group that made sure their voices were heard on November 5th was Florida’s Baby Boomers (Table 1). Notably, this age cohort was the state’s largest generational voting bloc with the largest turnout (Table 2). Republican Boomers showed up at an exceptionally high rate of 91%, followed by Democratic Boomers (86%) and NPAs (81%).

So, what drove Boomers to the polls? Undoubtedly, concerns about the economy, which was repeatedly the most important issue cited in public opinion polls both in Florida and the nation during the 2024 election cycle. Voters of every age were particularly concerned about inflation, especially the rising costs of groceries, gas, and housing. For many Boomers, inflation impacted their ability to save for or afford retirement on fixed incomes while also caring for aging parents and their children who were struggling to cope with rising housing costs and an uncertain job market.

Not surprising was the low turnout among the oldest generation (59%), largely due to a higher share in bad health. Perhaps the most disappointing to Democrats was the turnout rate of the two youngest generations, the Millennials (70%) and Gen Z (61%). The assumption was that younger voters would be heavily Democratic as in past elections and be driven by the pathbreaking candidacy of Harris and the abortion amendment on Florida’s ballot.

By registration book closing, the two youngest generations were more divided in party affiliation than in previous years: Gen Z was Democrat (31%), Republican (31%) and NPA + Minor party (39%) (Figure 2). And Republican Millennials and Gen Z voters showed up in higher numbers compared to their Democratic and unaffiliated counterparts. As with Boomers, exit polls showed the economy to be a bigger issue for young voters than Democrats expected.

Florida’s Racial Divide in Turnout Hits Democrats Hardest

Party registration among the state’s electorate varied by race (Figure 3). Black registrants identify the most with Democrats (73%), and white voters with Republicans (51%). Asian, Hispanic, and Other (multi-racial) registrants were much more diverse, with a plurality of each registering as NPAs. Florida Democrats had high hopes of high turnout rates, particularly among voters of color.

Consistent with historical voting patterns, white voters voted at a significantly higher rate (83%) than every other racial group – Asian (72%), Hispanic (71%), Black (69%), and Other (69%) (Table 3).

The real story in 2024 was how each major party turned out its registered voters of color.

Notably, the GOP did better in mobilizing their non-white voters than did Democrats, particularly Hispanic (80% vs. 71%) and Asian (77% vs. 74%) voters. Hispanic Republican voters were strongly driven by the economy and anti-socialism sentiments. Asian Republicans were motivated by the economy and fears of erosion of the American dream.

What Florida Democrats didn’t expect was the poor turnout of one of its traditionally key voting blocs – Black voters. Only 73% of Black Democrats cast their vote in the 2024 election. In fact, Black voters across the board had lower turnout than other racial groups among Republicans (62%) and NPAs (56%).

In retrospect, Democrats’ overemphasis on abortion/reproductive rights did not resonate with Black, Hispanic, or Asian voters as much as expected, nor did Kamala Harris’s multi-racial background. As noted, a low turnout indicates messaging and voter mobilization strategies that did not have the intended effect. Some Black and Hispanic voters oppose abortion on religious grounds. Furthermore, post-election analyses of Black men attributed their lower support to feelings of neglect from the Democratic Party relative to Black women—a finding that worries party leaders heading into the 2026 cycle.

Republican Women Take the Reins

For the past several decades, women have been more likely to register and vote than men and more likely to register and vote for Democrats. However, in Florida in 2024, women were more divided in their party affiliation. For the first time, a slightly higher proportion of women registered as Republicans (37% vs. 36%). (Figure 4).

In the 2024 election, Florida’s women registrants outvoted men, but only by a slim margin. This was consistent across each partisan group—Republicans and Democrats, as well as NPAs (Table 4).

Notably, Republican women voted at higher rates as compared to Republican men (86% vs. 83%), as did Democratic women (79% women vs. 76% men). Generationally, turnout for Republican women was highest among Boomers (91%) and Gen X (88%)—generations more personally involved with children as parents or grandparents and household finances.

A major national storyline was that Democrats would win the turnout battle and the election, especially in swing states, by unifying women of all ages, races, and party affiliations (something that has never been done). The strategy was to focus almost exclusively on the issue of reproductive rights and to rely on a younger candidate and woman of color (Harris) as the messenger. The strategy did not work in Florida as Democrats failed to unify, expand, or turn out even registered Democrats.

The bottom line is that assumptions about group cohesiveness on an issue or around a specific candidate can be overly misguided. Such was the case in Florida where exit polls showed a higher percentage of Democrats voted for Trump than did Republicans for Harris. Admittedly, Florida Democrats had far less money with which to mobilize voters because national Democratic deep-pocket donors chose to spend their money in swing states.

But that was not the only reason for the party’s low turnout rates among some Democratic voters. The results affirmed what we already know about women. They are not a monolithic group. The same can be said about the diversity of Florida’s minority racial groups.

In retrospect, despite the hopes of many Democrats in the state, Florida Republicans had the numbers, issues, and messaging on their side, all contributing to a higher turnout.

A Few Lessons for 2026

Florida’s midterm elections will probably attract significant attention in the coming months. Governor Ron DeSantis (R) is termed out, and several prominent Republicans are already looking to fill his seat. Alongside the gubernatorial and Cabinet races, elections will be held for all 28 U.S. House seats, half the state Senate, and all 120 state House seats.

Given these factors, what “words of wisdom” might we offer potential candidates, parties, and other political groups for this next cycle in the Sunshine State?

1. Better track demographic shifts in the electorate, particularly in legislative districts. This would generate more effective candidate and party microtargeting and messaging, as well as mobilization strategies and tactics.
2. Stop making assumptions and reject old stereotypes about the voting behavior of large social groups. Groups (Hispanics, women, etc.) are not monolithic, and therefore, expecting or relying on group cohesion is unwise.
3. Nothing in politics stays the same. In this fast-paced, highly connected world, new issues and technologies are constantly emerging. Ignore them at your own peril.
4. Avoid obsessive reliance on polls and those with small sample sizes, notably horserace polls. Better utilize focus groups for message development.
5. Recruit and involve younger campaigners in every facet of communication strategy development.

Remember, turnout wins elections, but turnout is the last step, and often the hardest. Successful voter mobilization requires the 3 M’s: good messaging, best means of communication, and superior microtargeting.