PARTY SWITCHING IN THE SUNSHINE STATE:

Florida’s Changing Political Allegiances Ahead of the 2026 Midterms

Dr. Susan A. MacManus, USF Distinguished Professor Emerita

Dr. Amy N. Benner, Director of Research

David J. Bonanza, Research Associate

Anthony A. Cilluffo, Research Associate

With the midterm elections right around the corner, we’ve taken a close look at Floridians who left the two major parties and No Party Affiliation (NPAs) who abandoned their independent status in 2026. While the former reflects broader national trends of Americans becoming increasingly dissatisfied with both major political parties, the latter may offer clues about where NPAs (24% of Florida’s electorate) may lean when they show up to vote in the midterms.

Key Findings

• Switchers who left both major parties, Democrat and Republican, were more likely to become NPAs than cross party lines.
• NPAs who ditched their independent status were more likely to identify as Republican over Democrat.
• Women outnumber men among party switchers; women who left the major parties were generally more inclined to register as NPAs; Democratic men were more likely to switch to the Republican Party, while Republican men were more likely to register as NPAs.
• Voters of color leaving the major parties were generally more likely to switch to NPAs, except Black Republicans, who were more likely to switch to the Democratic Party. On the other hand, White Democratic switchers were more likely to become Republicans.
• Younger voters who abandoned the parties were more likely to register as NPAs, while older voters were more likely to cross party lines.

Partisans Who Left the Party

Among Floridians who abandoned a major party in 2026 (Figure 1), more were previously registered as Democrats than Republicans. But rather than crossing the partisan aisle, most opted to leave the major parties behind altogether, and instead, registered as NPAs.

Figure 1. Major Party Switchers

Source: MacManus, et al., analysis of Florida Voter Registration System (FVRS) extracts from January 1 through August 2026.

Among former Florida Democrats (71,208 voters), there was a nearly even split between those who registered as NPAs (44%) and those who crossed over to the Republican Party (41%). Far fewer joined one of Florida’s 15 minor parties (15%). In contrast, Republicans voters who ditched their party (58,585 voters) were far more likely to register as NPAs (48%) than switch to the Democratic Party (33%). Slightly more former Republicans also switched to a minor party (19%) compared to former Democrats. Digging deeper into who left the two major parties reveals a more nuanced picture.

Gender. Women outnumbered men among those who left both the Democratic and Republican parties. While women leaving either party were more likely to re-register as NPAs, the patterns among men were notably different. In particular, Democratic men who switched parties were more likely to register as Republicans (44%) than NPAs (41%). Republican men, on the other hand, were considerably more likely to register as NPAs (51%) than Democrats (29%).

Race/Ethnicity. Trends also emerge when examining the race/ethnicity of party switchers. Among Democrats who left the party, voters of color were more likely to switch to NPAs (Asian 55%, Black 59%, Hispanic 45%, and Other race 54%), whereas White voters were more likely to become Republicans (49%). Among former Republicans, most racial/ethnic groups were also more likely to switch to NPAs, with one notable exception: Black voters, who were more likely to switch to the Democratic Party (54%).

Generation. Generationally, similar patterns emerged among voters who left the major parties. Specifically, younger generations (Gen Z and Millennials) were more likely to re-register as NPAs than switch to another party. Among older generations of voters (Boomers and Silent Generation, however, voters were more likely to cross over the political aisle. An interesting exception was Gen X switchers. Those who left the Democratic Party were nearly evenly split between registering as NPAs (43%) and Republicans (42%). In contrast, Gen X switchers who left the Republican Party were far more likely to register as NPAs (51%) than Democrats (29%).

Perhaps the more interesting story, however, isn’t Floridians leaving the major parties but rather the larger number of NPAs who decided to join them.

NPAs Take Sides

A greater proportion of Florida’s switchers weren’t from the two major parties. Instead, they were former NPAs who decided to pick a team (Figure 2). Among the NPAs that turned partisan, a greater percentage registered as Republicans (46%) compared to Democrats (36%).

Figure 2. NPAs Move Republican Over Democrat

Source: MacManus, et al., analysis of Florida Voter Registration System (FVRS) extracts from January 1 through August 2026.

A closer look at the demographics of these switchers, however, reveals some striking patterns. Among former NPAs who registered as Democrats, women (64%) far outnumbered men (36%). These switchers were also more racially diverse, with White voters accounting for just 48% of this group. They also tended to be younger, with Gen Z (29%) and Millennials (27%) collectively accounting for more than half of these switchers.

In contrast, among NPAs who switched to the Republican Party, men (53%) slightly outnumbered women (46%). These switchers were predominantly White voters (71%) and tended to be older, with Gen Z (15%) and Millennials (27%) accounting for smaller shares.

This trend among former NPAs may be a consequence of Florida’s closed primary system, with voters choosing to affiliate with a major party to participate in its primary elections rather than sit on the sidelines. However, this pattern may also offer cues about the partisan preferences of Florida’s unaffiliated voters heading into the 2026 midterms. If these switchers reflect the preferences of NPAs as a whole, these registrations patterns suggest Republicans may have an advantage within this coveted voting bloc. However, in the event of a close election, the results may come down to voter enthusiasm and turnout.

Major Party Concerns

One major political story earlier this year was the sizable and growing share of American voters who now identify as Independents (45%) rather than with one of the two major parties. This comes alongside reports of growing dissatisfaction with the major parties and other political institutions and elected leaders. These trends should raise alarm bells for party organizations, particularly in a state like Florida, where both parties need to appeal to unaffiliated voters to win on Election Day.

While Florida’s NPA population has declined since 2022, minor party registration has nearly doubled in size heading into this election cycle. Collectively, NPAs and minor party voters now account for nearly 28% of the state’s electorate, approaching the size of the Democratic party’s registration base (30%). Given the size of this voting bloc, examining who is leaving the major parties and where unaffiliated voters are moving may offer important insights about the changing partisan landscape heading into the midterms.

For Democrats, this data suggest that recent spikes in enthusiasm may still not be enough to compensate for Republicans’ registration edge. Particularly, NPA voters that moved to one of the parties in the last year still preferred Republicans over the Democratic Party. However, registration patterns among recent party switchers suggest that Democrats may be gaining ground with certain demographic groups, particularly younger voters. It’s just a question of whether they actually show up on Election Day.

A Sharper focus on Party Destinations and Net Gains

A detailed breakdown of the number of voters who changed party affiliations and those who did is reported in Table 1. Nearly all voters did not change their registration status—over 98% of both Democrats and Republicans stayed with their party, with slightly lower but still substantial shares of NPAs (over 95%) and minor party voters (over 93%) not changing. Among those who did change their affiliations, the three most common changes were from NPA to Republican (65,107 voters), from NPA to Democrat (51,578 voters) and from Democrat to NPA (31,358 voters).

Table 1. Party Switchers and Their Destinations

*Value includes those who moved from one minor party to another.

Source: MacManus, et al., analysis of Florida Voter Registration System (FVRS) extracts from January 1 through August 2026.

Net Gains

Voters are simultaneously switching into and out of each party and NPA status. What matters for each party’s competitive status is the net flow—are they getting more voters coming in than leaving? Table 2 shows these net flows for each affiliation.

Table 2. Party Switcher Flows and Net Gains

Source: MacManus, et al., analysis of Florida Voter Registration System (FVRS) extracts from January 1 through August 2026.

This analysis shows a notable number of NPA voters (70,952, or 2% of all NPAs) left their no party status and chose a party. For Republicans, nearly twice as many voters switched in (105,103) than left (58,585). This means that overall Republican registration had two sources of growth during 2026: new registrants, and existing voters who changed their affiliation.

For Democrats, the net flows for existing voters were closer to cancelling out, although the party did end up slightly ahead by 8,587 net registrants. This means the Democratic Party relied almost solely on new registration to grow their base.

The largest net gain, however, was among minor party registrants (3.6%). This trend is reflective of an overall growing dissatisfaction with the two major parties.

Conclusion

Changing parties requires some degree of effort, suggesting that party switchers may be more politically engaged than the average voter. Consequently, turnout among this bloc of voters may be higher than overall turnout in the upcoming 2026 midterms. (Of course, turnout is difficult to predict with precision.) Beyond their potential impact on the upcoming election, however, these patterns offer insight into the changing political landscape in Florida. While party switching remains relatively uncommon, these shifts may provide an early indication of broader changes within the electorate that extend beyond a single election cycle.

Notes on data: For this analysis, we analyze Florida voters who switched their registration status in 2026 through the end of August. We only consider registrants whose status was active at the start and end of August 2026. Inactive registrants were excluded. We also do not include the small number of registrants who moved from one minor party to another in our analysis of party switchers. (There are 15 minor parties in Florida.)